**Kahneman D., Tversky A.** (USA)** Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk
**

This paper presents a critique of expected utility theory as a descriptive model of decision making under risk, and develops an alternative model, called prospect theory. Choices among risky prospects exhibit several pervasive effects that are inconsistent with the basic tenets of utility theory. In particular, people underweight outcomes that are merely probable in comparison with outcomes that are obtained with certainty. This tendency, called the certainty effect, contributes to risk aversion in choices involving sure gains and to risk seeking in choices involving sure losses. In addition, people generally discard components that are shared by all prospects under consideration. This tendency, called the isolation effect, leads to inconsistent preferences when the same choice is presented in different forms. An alternative theory of choice is developed, in which value is assigned to gains and losses rather than to final assets and in which probabilities are replaced by decision weights. The value function is normally concave for gains, commonly convex for losses, and is generally steeper for losses than for gains. Decision weights are generally lower than the corresponding probabilities, except in the range of low probabilities. Overweighting of low probabilities may contribute to the attractiveness of both insurance and gambling.

**Mayevsky V.I., Malkov S.Y., Rubinstein A.A.** (Moscow)** Features and problems of modeling the shifting mode of reproduction
**

The authors continue to develop a new version of the theory of capital reproduction. Compared with the previous works a more realistic situation is proposed: the economy divided into sector B, creating consumer goods and investment sector A, reproducing the fixed capital of A and B sectors. Accordingly, the sets of mesoeconomic subsystems of different ages forming sectors A and B are allocated and the mathematical model of the shifting mode of reproduction created. Experimental calculations show that the principal macro-level features remain the same at the meso-level of economy. Some well-known phenomena of cyclical development of sectors A and B confirmed.

**Pitelin A.K.** (Moscow)** On non-monetary inflation factors
**

The paper proves a possibility of permanent cost inflation under the absence of the shock impacts on the economy. Using a multi-product model, the key factors, determining the rate of such inflation and some possible ways of its decreasing, are derived. The ability of market to reach the state of stabilization under different prices for the same product is shown.

**Egorova N.Ye., Torzhevsky K.A.** (Moscow)** Mathematical models and analysis methods for stock markets and its applying in Russian environment
**

Article presents an overview of the economic and mathematical tools for stock markets analysis and forecast. A comprehensive approach to markets prognosis is based on synthesis of various research methods and used for the Russian stock market medium-term forecast.

**Graborov S.V.** (Moscow)** Majority optimization of taxes, social transfers, prices and wages
**

A procedure of nonlinear taxes optimization jointly with social transfers, prices and wages by the majority rule is suggested. The conditions of taxation unification that are sufficient for getting a single optimal decision for every participant of coalition of "pure" workers and transfer recipients are found. A mathematical programming task allow finding this decision is formulated.

**Ershov D.M., Kobylko A.A.** (Moscow)** Selection of enterprise complex strategy concerning consistency of strategic decisions
**

A new approach to selection of enterprise complex strategy proposed. Assumes consideration of such important factor as consistency of strategic decisions. The new approach was tested on a model problem and showed its practical usefulness.

**Morozov S.L.** (Moscow)** Universal mathematical model of calendar year duration for all types of the exchange calendars. Calendar constant
**

Now there are three separate independent "passive analogue" mathematical models: for lunar, solar and luni-solar calendars which does not take into account a system error. The uniform universal mathematical model for all the three types of calendars does not exist. In the article author offers the uniform universal "active digital" mathematical model for all the existing types of calendars which takes into account a system error.

**Drogobytsky I.N.** (Moscow)** Economic Cybernetics as a New Direction in Managers' Training
**

This author explains the urgent need to revive economic cybernetics as the bachelor and master's areas of training. Such initiative would restore the presence of Economic Cybernetics in education and thereby balance the one with the scope of academic subjects in which cybernetics is a separate section. This will not only bring together the scientific and educational spheres of economics, but also greatly expand the number of researchers involved in organizational management, which ultimately could lead to a massive synergies.

**Ivanov V.N., Ovsienko Yu.V., Sukhova N.N.** (Moscow)** Russian Social Sphere in the 1990s and 2000s (Labor Activity and Standard of Living)
**

The second article in the series of publications on the analysis of the Russian social sphere development processes in the 1990s and 2000s presented. The trends in labor activity of the Russian population, employment in the sectors and industries as well as living conditions of various population groups and the level of income inequality are analyzed.

**Bakhitova R.H., Gafarova Ye.A., Khayrullina N.A.** (Ufa)** Model of investments into commercial real estate concerning the parameters of the consumer market
**

The authors analyze the construction of empirical econometric model of the influence of retail commodity turnover and the monetary income of the population on dynamics of investments into the commercial real estate. Econometric research is based on the principles of the Engle-Granger co-integration analysis. The model allows to draw a conclusion that change in investments substantially depends on the conditions in trade, both - in the short- and long-term plan.

**Babenko Ye.A., Skorodumov S.V.** (Moscow)** Competitive analysis' tools for creating new technology objects with aircraft engineering as an example
**

The article deals with the construction of mathematical and economic models for the competitive analysis's, as well as with the development of algorithms for decision-making in the structure of the decision support system in organizations of producers of high-tech products by the example of aviation enterprises, among which are potentially competing perspective views of aircraft, including a new generation of aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles and unmanned pilotless airplanes.

**Pleschinsky A.S.** (Moscow)** Computable model of structural transformation of vertically integrated industries
**

The computable model of structural transformation of vertically integrated industries which enterprises apply various strategy of vertical integration and the control in the conditions of oligopoly competition is offered. Demand for the final product and costs at various methods of production of firms are described by nonlinear functions with constant elasticity. The developed computer toolkit allows to calculate the prices of the industries' products, volumes of output and other characteristics of firms before integration, as a result of consolidation of manufacturers of intermediate and final products and in case of application of the inter-company interactions mechanism with controllable margin. The numerical example of asymmetrical vertically connected duopolies is given. If margin coefficient reduces the contract form of interaction of previous and subsequent firms gives the increasing of their total profit and public welfare to the sizes reached in case of integrated firm's creation.

**Weber S., Dower P.A., Davydov D.V.** (Moscow)** Transfers and conflict prevention: pro et contra
**

The article examines the fiscal federalism policies as an economic mechanism for prevention of conflicts driven by population diversity. We suggest an optimization model of transfers in multi-regional diverse countries. By using cross-country regression analysis for 57 countries in 1970-1999, we confirm theoretical basis of the model.

**Kuchaev A.I.** (Moscow)** Efficiency Increase in Design Mechanism of State Procurement for R&D
**

In this paper the author considers a modification in mechanism design for R&D in order to increase its efficiency and to create incentives for business implication.

**Sedova S.V.** (Moscow)** Model of Investment Programs Structure Formation
**

The optimizing model intended for formation of options of structure of investment programs is presented. The calculations illustrating possibilities of model are given. The multicriteria optimizing model of formation of options of investment programs' structure is presented. In a model the possibility of choice of the amount of finance and time of the beginning of the projects applying for participation in the program in combination with reinvestment of the profit received during implementation of the projects started earlier is considered. The calculations illustrating a model potential on the example of petrochemical industry are given. Changes in parameters of a model allows to receive a set of options of program structure promotes the effective decision.

**Kotliarov I.D.** (St-Petersburg)** Selection of a Partner for Licensing Agreement
**

The article provides an economic analysis of a specific form of license cooperation when the licensee is allowed to produce and to sell products according to licensor's technology and under his brand. Proposed criteria of a partner selection that takes into account incentives, risks and resources. It is demonstrated that licensor's and licensee's goals should meet each other.

**Gusev A.A. ** (Moscow)** The Evolution of Policy of Ecological and Economic Development
**

The ways of becoming a science of sustainable development in the world and in Russia over the past 20 years considered. The approaches to improve the tools of institution of "green" economy proposed. The framework of economic incentives for the solutions of environmental problems proposed.

**Zamulin O.A., Platonov K.E.** (Moscow, USA)** Protectionism as a counter-cyclical policy
**

The observed global rise of protectionism during the world financial crisis 2008-2010 raises the question whether trade restrictions can be justified at times of recessions. The problem remains mostly unexplored on theoretical grounds. Thå authors analyze whether protectionism can stabilize output in a model of small open economy with sticky prices. The authors find that if domestic goods are the substitutes of the foreign, then a policy of imports restrictions can stabilize the output. However, this policy lowers welfare if we assume homogenous consumers and perfect labor mobility across the industries.

**Imanov R.A., Burilina M.A., Zhivitsa V.I. ** (Moscow)** On the issue of national economic costs of production proposed by V.S. Nemchinov
**

The paper provides a review of various ways of pricing reform published in the USSR before the economic reform of 1965. Analyzing the concept of national economic costs of production proposed by V.S. Nemchinov as a basis of pricing, authors find it very important to ensure consistency between the pricing model and the business model applied at the enterprise level. The assertion that the form of ownership shouldn't affect the change of pricing models whereas a fundamentally different business model should be applied for public enterprises, as compared with private ones, is justified in the article.

**Kozyr Yu.V.** (Moscow)** Approaches to the valuation of shares in companies
**

The purpose of this paper is to reflect the author's view on ideology of receiving final assessments in the evaluation of shares in the company based on the results of applying different valuation approaches. In contrast to the widespread practice of the evaluation results obtained by the application of various valuation approaches by weighing. It is proposed to establish the upper and lower bounds of object's value. The presence of these boundaries is due to the logic of rational behavior of economic (business) entities, as well as the provisions of the current edition of the international valuation standards. The further mechanism of the final valuations of shares in companies is similar to the traditional approach. The author's propositions allow to get a more informed assessment of the total value of shares in companies.

**Emelyanov A.M., Briukhova O.O.** (Perm)** Drivers of banks license withdrawal: the after crisis (2010-2011) study
**

The article presents the reasons for withdrawal of licenses from the Russian commercial banks in the post-crisis period from 01 January 2010 to 31 December 2011. Logistic regression is used to predict the financial stability of the banks. The model is built on the basis of monthly balance sheet statements, taken five months before observing the status of the bank. The impact of unbalanced sample on the forecasting accuracy of the model is also discussed.

**Babat L.G., Freedman A.A. ** (Moscow)** Parallel embedding of polyhedrons and efficient use of natural diamonds
**

The embedding of pairs of intersecting proper n-dimensional simplexes is studied. Simplex A is embedded parallel in simplex B if the outer normals of A and B are unidirectional. Their pairs are said to be embedded parallel if one pair simplexes are embedded parallel into another pair simplexes. Each pair is associated with n+3 parameters. Theorem: a pair A or its mirror image is embedded parallel in pair B if and only in case parameters of A do not exceed parameters of B. The theorem is used for the analysis of efficient use of raw diamonds.

**Voronovitsky M.M. ** (Moscow)** The agent-based model of the closed market with one commodity and rational choice of partners
**

The model of a one-commodity market, in which at each moment there are the fixed quantity of goods and the fixed quantity of money was proposed and investigated in the paper. Each participant can have one of three statuses in the market: a buyer, a seller or not to participate in trade at a certain moment of time. Each of them can change his status in the next moment of time. Market participants can change their statuses and prices only by using their personal information about his trade in the previous moment. This model differs from previous model by considering the rational choice of participant's activities and status and by à more realistic mechanism of market trade (Voronovitsky, 2014). The main target of this research is to find the effects of rational behavior of participants in the market. The main result is the convergence of trajectory of our system to à stationary set of states with average price of trade which is close to constant.

**Bronshtein E.M., Avzalova A.I. ** (Ufa)** Prediction of shares price as Markov chain
**

The authors consider Markov property for time series of stock prices. When the hypothesis of Markov property absence is not rejected, the prediction procedure is proposed for short-term stock price.

**Bajeva N.B., Kurkin Ye.V. ** (Voronezh)** Mathematical methods to research properties of production lacunae
**

Approaches allow identifying and evaluating the influence of inhomogeneous elements on the regional economic system are considered, the concept of production lacuna is introduced. Also some aspects of production lacuna scope change on regional economic are identified.

**Kovalenko E.V.** (Moscow)** On one method of solving the problem of optimal securities portfolio management
**

Analytical solutions for the Cauchy problem were constructed and numerical methods were proposed in the paper. The results apply to the Cauchy problem for a parabolic equation with polynomial dependence on spatial variables and with arbitrary dependence on time variable.

On the basis of the proposed analytical solutions and numerical algorithms, methods of construction of various probabilistic parameters were created for the controlled portfolio, which has assets modeled by a system of stochastic differential equations with trends depending on a number of macroeconomic parameters.

**Titov V.V., Bezmelnitzyn D.A.** (Novosibirsk)** Optimization of coordination between complex production operations management and enterprise's strategic plans
**

The authors present the methodological approach to coordination of strategic and operative planning for serial production of complicated products with long technological cycle. Optimization, schedule and network planning are combined.

**Gal'kova Ye.A., Maergoiz L.S. ** (Krasnoyarsk)** An optimizational mathematical model of two-level distribution of limited resources between groups of people
**

Proposed an optimizational mathematical model of two-level distribution of a limited resource of social-economic contents between the groups of people. Its construction is based on some principles of a just distribution. It is given a full description of admissible linear restrictions of model parameters, which are control factors of the resource distribution process. A formalization of the model as a square programming problem with restrictions in the form of linear equalities and inequalities is represented. Given an application of the model in the case of many-staged distribution of the resource. Moreover, a rating of consumers and 'regulating principle' are the same at every stage.

**Votyakov A.A. ** (Moscow)** On optimal embedding body octahedron
**

To properly assess the value of a natural crystal, it is necessary to know what products can be made from it. In the language of mathematics, it is necessary to put a body having a shape of a product into geometric body having the form of a crystal. Attachment diamond into octahedron - this is a classic problem of production technology jewelry algorithms solutions which are investigated in this paper. Embedding problem is reduced to a linear programming problem . The estimation of the complexity of algorithms is done. It is proved that the complexity of the algorithms in the attachment body crystals belonging to the octahedron classes depends linearly on the number of the crystal faces.

**Kuleshova O.N., Veselitskaya N.N., Karasev O.I., Bogomolova A.V. ** (Moscow)** Event tables for the roadmap development in the water purification industry
**

The authors propose an integrated approach to the roadmap development that implies the combined use of qualitative and quantitative methods. In particular, the analysis of the event tables' application to the roadmap creation in the water purification industry. The authors approach can contribute to the development of innovation-based strategies in different subject areas.

**Weber S., Davydov D.V.** (Moscow)** Economics of diversity: ideas, methods, results
**

Considered modern ideas and methods for studying diversity from the economic point of view. Starting from historical, social, political and cultural aspects, the authors focus on the economic approach that helps us to reveal main paths of diversity influence on economic and social development of the nations. Some latest researches and results, achieved in 2013 by the New Economic School Center for the Studying of Diversity and Social Interactions are analyzed.

**Smirnov A.S.** (Moscow)** Sponsored-search auctions: approaches and theoretical models
**

The article reviews the basic approaches and theoretical models that describe the features and peculiarities of the modern and rapidly developing market of sponsored-search auctions on the Internet. We pay main attention to the sponsored-search auction design models and its comparative analysis. We also describe and compare different theoretical frameworks for this agenda, including static and dynamic games of perfect and imperfect information, structural models and models of users' behavior. This branch of literature is relatively new, but it already attracts a significant attention of world-leading scholars due to its high practical importance and new challenges to mechanism design theory.

**Danilov V.I.** (Moscow)** Substitution and complementarity of goods in terms of utility function
**

In the paper we consider a problem of characterization of utility functions which generate gross substitute demand. Let f be a concave function; we consider it as a utility function of some comsumer expressed in terms of money. This means that demand (at a price p) is formed as solunion of the problem f(x)-p(x) max. Such a function is a GS-function if an increasing of price of any good yields increasing of demand of other goods. We prove that f is a GS-function if and only if the conjugate function f* is supermodular. As a corollary we prove that any GS-function is submodular. We provide also a rule for calculation of the derivative of the convolution of several concave functions.

**Danilin V.I.** (Moscow)** System of models of coordination of decisions between management divisions and the company in general
**

The basis of the business plan in the company is the development of the production plan (taking into account demand for production and present resources) and the system of the financial plans estimating financial results of the production plan. Development of these plans takes place in different divisions of the company. In the article the attention is paid to the development of the system of models for coordination of planned decisions between the divisions and the company. For the solution of this problem the system of models of development of these plans in the form of iterative procedure is offered. The system consists of the production plan taking into account expansion of capacities, formation of the plan of profit and losses, planned balance and the plan of cash flow taking into account feedback between the models.

**Asaturov K.G.** (Moscow)** Dynamic models of systematic risk: evidence from the Indian stock market
**

The paper examines dynamic systematic risk nature of the Indian companies in the frame of the market model. The closing weekly prices of 89 Indian stocks and BSE 100 index as the market index during the period from January 2000 to December 2013 are analyzed with rolling OLS, multivariate GARCH models, semiparametric regression and a Kalman Filter. According to the results for the analyzed period, in 44 out of 89 cases Kalman Filter is the best model, while semiparametric regressions - in the other 45 cases. As for the forecasted period, for 41 out of 89 stocks multivariate GARCH-models surprisingly outperform both semiparametric models (33 out of 89) and a Kalman Filter technique (15 out of 89). Moreover, analysis of the betas dynamic shows that for 5% significance level 59 and 62 out of 89 time-varying betas processes are non-stationary according to ADF and Philips-Perron tests respectively and the only one of the processes is stationary according to KPSS test.

**Vavilov S.A., Svetlov K.V.** (St-Petersburg)** On the evaluation of credit return interest for venture projects in the framework of replicating portfolio approach
**

Evaluation of credit return interest for venture projects is considered in the present paper. The problem to study is tackled from the lender position in the framework of replicating portfolio approach. The derived value of interest rate strongly depends on a number of factors, such as duration of borrowing, degree of riskiness and the amount of equity invested in the project. The novelty of the proposed approach is stipulated by application of stochastic methods to the problem inquest. Suggested methodology implies diversification phenomenon when the existence of a number of financial projects in contrast to the singular one leads to the diminishing of the overall credit margin. Arbitrage free property is proved with respect to the derived interest rate.

**Kolesnik G.V., Shvets N.N.** (Moscow)** Market structuring as an instrument of the state industrial policy implementation
**

One of the instruments of market competition regulation is the formation of a hierarchical structure of producers by providing some of them with the preferential terms of business. In addition to changes in market prices, the sale of privileges to producers allows consumer to extract additional income. The authors study the impact of the privileges in the form of long-term agreements on the market equilibrium and consumer surplus. It is shown that long-term agreements are effective for consumer at the markets with à small number of participants. The influence of transaction costs on the optimal market contracting structure is analyzed.

**Mironov V.V., Novikova M.Yu.** (Moscow)** Economic-mathematical analysis of the transitional stage of development of the space launch vehicles
**

The economic-mathematical analysis generations of the space launch vehicles (SLV) developments is submitted on the example of Federal State Unitary Enterprise "CSKB Progress" and the adjacent enterprises of space branch. The mathematical model of SLV evolution is created on the large statistical database and corresponds to the laws of large systems development. The time forecast of current SLV generations change is carried on the basis of model in view of expert estimations. There is the conformity of this forecast to modern practice of space branch analyzed.

**Kolesin I.D.** (St-Petersburg)** The model of cooperation of people with administration in coordination of controversial issues
**

The model of cooperation of people with administration on emerging environmental issues is examined. Communication strategies, which take into account the economic and psychological complexity of the issue: the lack of funds and the credibility are examined. The research is based on the example of solving problems of transfer of big platforms of household and industrial wastes and elimination of the small, spontaneously arising dumps. The algorithms of distribution of limited means and the credibility are offered. The principle of proportionality of the current and future expenses on n objects is taken as a basis. Comparison with the solution of a problem of linear programming and with the decision based on the principle of proportional reduction of volumes of all objects is given. The recommendation about a choice of the most preferable principle is made.