**Malyshev V.L.** (Moscow)** The transparency of information as a basis of innovation development strategy for the Russian economy
**

The author proves that the transition to innovation economy is determined not only by increasing high-technology products but mainly by changing of mechanism of production affairs. It is shown that Russian economy today is highly monopolized with profit maximization behavior of producers whereas the Innovation Development Strategy up to 2020 supposes the basic renovation. The crux of this renovation is changing the reproduction process by including consumption into it. Also the role of prices should change: their stimulation function would be replaced by distributional function.

**Jesús Huerta de Soto Ballester ** (Spain)** Economic recessions, banking reform and the future of capitalism
**

In the 2010 Hayek Memorial Lecture at the London School of Economics and Political Science the author argues that flows in the design of monetary and financial system were responsible for the global financial crisis and the subsequent recession. The crash reflected the unsustainable nature of the bubble induced by artificial credit expansion created by the fractional-reserve banking under the direction of central banks. Such boom-bust cycles will continue until radical reforms are implemented, including a 100% reserve requirement for demand deposits.

**Drogobytsky I.N.** (Moscow)** Measurement of management style
**

An original interpretation of the "management style" concept is proposed in the article and an algorithm is presented for quantitative measurement of its values. The algorithm is focused on personalized dialogue with the manager, "tied" to the coordinates, "clean" characteristics of management style on the axes of which are - science, art, vocation, craft, - and consist in finding the point that balances these particular characteristics. Background information to determine the management style is obtained by filling the questionnaire, designed to determine the degree of individual manager's commitment to a particular style within the specific stylistic characteristics.

**Kalmikov L.B., Khrustalev Ye.Yu.** (Moscow)** About the estimate of investment costs of premises in the construction projects
**

Authors propose a method for calculating the investment value of the property, which is based on the present value of expected income, and develop an economic-mathematical model of evaluation of the effectiveness of participation in the construction of investment projects.

**Smolyak S.A.** (Moscow)** Valuation of machines and equipment in curable and incurable depreciation
**

The dependence of the value of equipment on age is determined using a modified Discounted Cash Flows method. This assumes the most efficient use of evaluated equipment after valuation date (Highest And Best Use principle). The model uses available market and technical information and allows to evaluate used equipment taking its curable and incurable depreciation into account.

**Voronovitsky Ì.Ì.** (Moscow)** Model of herd behavior of bank clients
**

The run of bank is a phenomenon, when most of bank client demand the return their money from long-term deposits ahead of schedule. Herd behavior of bank clients is one of the reasons of that by our opinion. The run of bank is considered in this paper as an example of herd behavior. Two dynamic models of interaction of the clients and bank was created and investigated. It was shown that at simple and natural suppositions about decision making mechanisms by clients the herd behavior arises. The main purpose of this paper is the investigation of more complicated mechanisms of herd behavior than mechanisms investigated before.

**Pleschinskiy A.S., Jiltsova E.S.** (Moscow)** Analysis of the results of manufacture's modernization in conditions of oligopoly competition of innovator and its pursuer
**

With the help of the developed analytical model the process of manufacture's modernization by the enterprises-innovators and their pursuers is investigated, which strategy differ by terms and expenses. The conditions of profit gaining are obtained for innovator and pursuer as a result of a competition in the determined and stochastic variants of model. The expressions for the price value set of the right on new technology are given at the bargain of the competitors. The influence of terms and innovation costs on results of modernization is investigated.

**Fedorova Ye.A., Gilenko Ye.V.** (Moscow)** The use of binary choice models for predicting bank failures
**

The authors develop a model for predicting Russian bank failures using the binary choice models approach. The final indicator of bank failure comprises 5 factors. Marginal effects for every factor in the model were calculated in order to describe the response of the probability for a bank to go bankrupt to a unit change in the value of the factor. Estimation of predictive power of the model gives satisfactory results.

**Kiselev N.I.** (Moscow)** Minimal enclosing parallelepiped in parametric estimation of multidimensional uniform distribution
**

The linear model of generating a multidimensional random value with uniform distribution in a parallelepiped is discussed. Maximum likelihood principle in problem of parametric estimation is formulated as a principle of the minimal volume. In general case, the distinctive property of a minimal volume parallelepiped, enclosing all set of observations, is proved. On the basis of this property the algorithm of combinatorial class to find this parallelepiped is proposed. The results of numerical experiment on problem of estimation center and covariance matrix are represented for two-dimensional uniform distributed random value. In this experiment, the efficiency of minimum volume estimator is shown to be higher than that of a classical method of the moments.

**Zhitkov V., Labrents B.** (Moscow)** Strategies for regional development: positive and negative features
**

The strategic development plans for large regional objects are analyzed. The methodological recommendations compose of the best features of these plans. The advices to avoid the most typical shortcomings are given. The suggestion of the national strategic planning system for Future Management is discussed.

**Yershov E.B., Levitin Ye.S.** (Moscow)** On Forecasting and Planning Models of Social and Economic Problems
**

In order to study social and economic problems a mathematical model of joint search for exogenous parameters forecast and optimal plan leading to global optimisation problem is considered. This model, leading to searching the fixed-point for superposition of two many-valued mappings, is equivalent to complex global optimization problem.

**Rosentahl V.O., Ponomareva O.S.** (Moscow)** Issues Concerning Activating the Innovation Processes in the Russian Economy: Institutional Aspect.
**

Discussed the innovating activities in the Russian economy modernization. Main institutional difficulties of the present Russian innovation sector specified and the methodology of their studying proposed. Indicated the important directions of institutional change in order to activate controlled and spontaneous innovation.

**Fattakhov M.R.** (Moscow)** Agent-Based Model of Socio-Economic Development of Moscow
**

The paper considers the international experience of controlling and monitoring sustainable urban development. A description of a new approach to modeling a complex urban environment is an agent-based model. On the basis of the developed model the author analyzes the main trends and long-term forecast of basic socio-economic development indicators of Moscow until 2025.

**Tulupov A.S.** (Moscow)** The Economic Aspects of Voluntary and Obligatory Ecological Insurance
**

The system of the indicators providing the size of a tariff rate of ecological insurance is considered. On settlement examples it is shown that the obligatory form of ecological insurance is more favorable in comparison with voluntary from the point of all the participants of ecological insurance: enterprises' insurers, insurance company and recipients.

**Voronovitsky M.M.** (Moscow)** The Simple Model of Behavior with Binary Choice and Influence of Total and Grouped Information (The Model of Social Protests)
**

The behavior of a group consisting of big number of identical participants in the case of a personal binary choice is considered. The information received from other members of a group at pair meetings and a general information on number of the participants who have chosen each alternatives before define the choice of each partner. The dynamic model of collective behavior based on Markov chain is constructed. Investigated the variants of behavior of a group at various level of susceptibility of the particular participant to the common information received through mass media. It is proved, that at a considerable susceptibility through certain time herd behavior arises. It is shown that in case of distortion of the common information the behavior of the group is changing in the direction of distortion of the general information.

**Graborov S.V.** (Moscow)** Public Choice Procedures of a Linear Budget and Tax Structure
**

The choice of the best budget and tax structure has been realized by means of unification of the objective functions of the voters. This structure is optimized in a framework of a multi-product economy with the taxes on property, income and consumption. A generation of a steady voting union including "pure" employees and transfers recipients has been proved at a number of conditions. A budget and tax task has been formulated; its optimal decision ensures maximization of an after-tax income for every member of this formation.

**Ivanov A.Yu., Panov S.A.** (Moscow)** Models of Rolling Stock Reservation in Transportation Logistics Systems
**

Issues related to research and analysis of transportation logistics systems is reviewed. Rolling stock reservation problem is examined and related problem solving techniques are considered.

**Akhtyamov A.M.** (Ufa)** Terms of Choosing Best Schedule of Two Investment Schemes
**

By mathematical modeling four theorems about choosing best investment schedule of the two investment schemes with the same planning horizon and the amount of investment are proved. They can quickly determine which of them will do a larger volume of production in value terms without solving a differential equation. Examples and counterexamples are considered.

**Vereskov A.I.** (Moscow)** On Application of Graph Theory for Analysis of Innovations in the Enterprises
**

**Yangirov A.V., Yusupov K.N., Zaripova L.I.** (Ufa)** The Measurement of Structure of Reproduction Processes in the Russian Federation
**

The article is devoted to the interbranch analysis of the most general macroeconomic reproduction processes and proportions of the Russian Federation which exist nowadays. The development of material production, non-productive sphere, raw materials and non-resource sectors of industry and also non-material services sector in the system of the national economy is analyzed. The structural macroeconomic problems of the Russian Federation are revealed.

**Kuev A.I.** (Maikop)** About Modeling of Turkey-Meat Industry Structure
**

A formal description of economic processes of a poultry farm has been developed. A mathematical model of planning the structure of production of turkeys on the basis of linear programming has been developed. The model allows the calculation of the optimal dynamics of age and sex groups of the birds.

**Gromov V.I.** (Belarus)** Resonant Processes in Socio-Economic Systems: a Conceptual Approach
**

**Kryanev A.V., Tikhomirova A.N., Sidorenko Ye.V.** (Moscow)** Mathematical Method of Innovative Projects Group Examination Using the Bayes Approach
**

**Ustyuzhanina Ye.V.** (Moscow)** Application of property valuation methods for economic justification of product prices
**

The article examines the possibilities of application of the standard methods of valuation (comparative, income and the cost) for the economic justification of prices for new products. Examples of calculation of the prices for different economic situations are given. Special attention is paid to the criticism of current techniques of the pricing.

**Belkin V.D., Storozhenco V.P.** (Moscow)** The forecast of "Russia 2030" - ways of development
**

The article considers the main provisions of the "Forecast of the 2030", the role of market in the long-term forecast. Identified the main obstacles to the development of the economy: corruption, voluntarism, disparities in the expenditures of budgetary funds, the underestimation of science and social goals.

**Presnyakov V.F., Zotov V.V., Belova M.A.** (Moscow)** Business enterprise as an object of managing and a subject of economic behavior
**

Business enterprises of today exist as symbiosis of three subsystems: technologic - productive, managerial and transactional. Therefore the tradition grown since long ago to evaluate the performance of business enterprises almost exclusively in terms of technical and economic efficiency appears is today rather insufficient. It created quite a distorted image of modern business enterprise, alienated from basic requirements of modern societies and their institutions. The authors propose an approach for analyzing coordination of processes between and inside the enterprise's subsystems.

**Livchits V.N., Pozamantir E.I., Smolyak S.A.** (Moscow)** System of tariffs for freight transportations conducted in Russia by Open Joint-Stock Company "Russian Railways"
**

The authors give quite a complete system of principles for improving the tariffs for freight transportations that were put by the new price-list. Mathematic models for grounding contractual tariffs and tariffs optimization are also shown.

**Kozyrev A.N., Nevolin I.V.** (Moscow)** An application of algorithm for solving optimal resources distribution problems to price charging for intellectual property usage
**

The authors discuss the application of an algorithm for solving optimal resources distribution problems to nominate optimal reward for intellectual property usage. The conditions of such applicability are specified, and an example of algorithm exploitation in royalty rate optimization is demonstrated.

**Pleschinskiy A.S., Jiltsova Ye.S.** (Moscow)** Computable model of industry's modernization
**

The computable dynamic model of modernized branch of industry is offered. Industry enterprises use various innovative strategies in conditions of oligopoly competition. The developed computer toolkit allows to determine trajectories of enterprises development, described by indicators of innovative, operational and financial activity. Used technologies are characterized by nonlinear production costs, elasticity of demand at the price is constant. In each period of time industry's position is the balance of Cournot and depends on the production technology used by the enterprises. Strategies of in the innovator, its pursuer and the enterprise giving the modernization up or buying the license are researched.

**Mednitskiy V.G., Mednitskiy Yu.V.** (Moscow)** Balance, optimality and economic equilibrium in the open production systems
**

In mathematical modeling of economic equilibrium distinction between the gross output of production and its commodity component is usually ignored that isn't absolutely correct. It is shown that use of Leontyev's model when forming balance of Errou-Debra type leads to the products market where economic equilibrium exists if the Leontyev's matrix is productive, and a vector of the prices of all the types of production is included in it as the semipositive. It is shown also that monetary expenses on that part of products on which there is a consumer demand in equilibrium will always be positive (in the balance prices).

**Palamarchuk Ye.S.** (Moscow)** Risk estimation for linear economic systems under negative time preferences
**

We consider stochastic linear economic control system with a quadratic cost function taking into account the agents' negative time preferences that can be represented by increasing discount function. We give a definition of average optimality over an infinite time horizon for such a system. Risk of using the obtained optimal control law is estimated. The results are applied to an ecological-economic model.

**Gorlov S.K., Rodin V.A.** (Voronezh)** To the question on efficiency of an ascending scale of the taxation
**

**Kilmatov T.R.** (Vladivostok)** Time-Lag - as a factor of loosing of the economic system
**

**Ilmensky M.D., Polak Yu.Ye., Stavchikov A.I.** (Moscow)** M.G.Rappoport's traditions in the activity of Laboratory for network information resources in CEMI
**

M.G. Rappoport had worked in CEMI for more than 30 years. He was the first Scientific secretary of the Institute, then for many years he headed the department of computer science and a laboratory for mechanization of economic and mathematical calculations. Later many of his former colleagues had joined the laboratory for network information resources. Despite the difference in the subject-work of these collectives, their work has much in common. This refers to the principles of the organization of work, and prepared print production.

**Makarov V.L.** (Moscow)** Social Simulation Gaining the Rate
**

Given a short survey of the social simulation, how it is considered in the modern literature. Focused on agent-based models, where members of a human society play the role of the agents. To illustrate this there is a number of examples, taken from the CEMI publications and the other sources. Special attention paid to the precise formulation of such notions as trust, irrationality, fear etc. Given the mathematic description notion "power", "freedom"; shown the ways to its qualitative measure.

**Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R.** (Moscow)** Use of the Supercomputer Technologies in Social Sciences
**

Gives a short digression of the application of supercomputer technologies in social studies, primarily regarding technical realization of the large-scale agent-focused models (AFM). The instrument allows to describe behaviour of many fragments in à complex system thanks to the immense increase in the capacity of computers. As a result a dream of many researchers to learn to explain the macro-phenomenon on the basis of behaviour of its components has began to be embodied in a reality. For example, physicists, able to describe behaviour of elementary particles, have created computer imitation of activities of a big ensemble of such particles and began to study its behaviour using the computer, instead of in life. Thus appeared a concept of an artificial reality. In the article we consider the experience of foreign scientists and experts in starting AFM on supercomputers, and also the example AFM, developed in CEMI (RAS), and analyze the stages and methods of effective display of a calculating core of the multi-agent system on the architecture of a modern supercomputer.

**Dementyev V.Ye.** (Moscow)** Structural Factors of Technological Development
**

On the example of microelectronics development in the USA the role of already existing branches in development of new technologies is shown. At considerable lag from world technological leaders the economy can get to "a structural trap". It is reasonable to declare such a trap when already existing branches can't successfully compete with foreign firms, and the new technologies have no development without support from the demand of these branches. To escape a structural trap, the active state economic policy has to be based on the combined strategy of development maximizing synergy effect from modernization of lagging behind branches and formation of new productions.

**Bagrinovsky K.A., Nikonova A.A., Sokolov N.A.** (Moscow)** Some Specialties of Implementing Contemporary Marketing for Industry Development
**

The paper discloses the real problems concerning corporate management in industry, acting in conditions of limited nature resources for the brick production. The key ideas are proposed at the case of industrial enterprise, producing building materials. The problem situations are investigated. To solve the problems some contemporary marketing instruments are proposed, aimed at increasing the innovative activity at the enterprise considered.

**Gusev A.A.** (Moscow)** Ways to Ensure Social, Environmental and Economic Safety of Social Development
**

We propose a method for solving bimatrix games based on a search of a global minimum for Nash function. Choosing one by one some initial pure strategies, the method finds an exact solution of the game, if the complementarity condition holds, or it gives an acceptable approaching to the set of Nash points. The numerical tests of the method identified its advantages and disadvantages.

**Aivazian S.A., Afanasiev M.Yu.** (Moscow)** On the Company Employee's Human Capital Replacement Cost Valuation
**

Proposed the new approach to the evaluation of human capital (HC) substitution, based on the account of its two potential income parameters: basic (drawn form the effective use of HC and zero economic profit) and additional incomes (drawn from economic profit - negative or positive - as a measure of effective use of HC incorporated with the other employees). Methods proposed in (Aivazjan, Afanasev, 2012) are activated.

**Kleiner G.B.** (Moscow)** System economics and system-based modeling
**

The concept of the system economics is developed using the considered "world view", along with economic systems as the central objects of study, economic and management processes, economic goods and the relationships among them. Designed the basic classification (typology) of these components of the economy, allowing to propose a structural model of interaction between them in the functioning economy. We introduce the concept of system-based modeling as a research methodology, focused on the construction of mathematical models of economic systems at various levels, taking into account the systemic factors and effects. On the basis of this concept the models of some types of mergers and acquisitions of economic systems are built, as well as their generalized production functions, reflecting the effects of both resources and capabilities of economic systems of different types.

**Golshtein Ye.G., Malkov U.Kh., Sokolov N.A.** (Moscow)** A Numerical Method for Solving Bimatrix Games
**

We propose a method for solving bimatrix games based on a search of a global minimum of the Nash function. Choosing one by one some initial pure strategies, the method finds an exact solution of the game, if the complementarity condition holds, or it gives an acceptable approaching to the set of Nash points. The numerical tests of the method identified its advantages and disadvantages.

**Phelps E.S.** ** Entrepreneurship and Innovatorship in the Theory of Indigenous Innovation
**

The article produces the fragments of a Lecture at the Philosophical Society of Trinity College (Dublin 2012, October 15) read by the 2006 Nobel Laureate in Economics and Director of the Center on Capitalism and Society, Columbia University Ed. S. Felps. The subject is the

**Morozov S.L.** (Moscow)** About one new calendar system
**

The author created a unified and eternal calendar for the world - a single universal quantum mathematical digital circular matrix. Any analog calendar can be easily transformed into this universal digital loop quantum mathematical matrix. At the same time, this mathematical matrix is itself a super calendar (A basic mathematical cyclic calendar, unlimited in time and space) for the whole Humanity. It can be used for planning long-term space flights. This matrix is calculated only once and can be used by Mankind forever. Introduction of the global universal single eternal digital mathematical calendar in January 1, 2013 would be an important historical event in the life of the United Nations and all the Humanity.

The author proposed Ban Ki-moon, the General Secretary of the UN (October 14, 2012 CE), the President of USA Barack Hussein Obama (October 15, 2012 CE) and the President of Russia V.V Putin (October 17, 2012 CE) to a new purely secular single core Mathematical calendar for all Mankind from January 1, 2013.