Makarov V.L., Afanasiev A.A., Losev A.A. (Moscow)
Computable simulation model for money circulation in the Russian economy
The authors developed a computable general equilibrium model which describes the channels for money circulation in the Russian economy. Authors conducted scenario computations, in particular, dealing with the impact of monetary, credit and currency policy of the Central Bank on the major macroeconomic indicators of the national economy, and on the real and financial sector. The main instruments for monetary, credit and currency policy were refinancing rate and rouble interventions of the Bank of Russia at internal currency market. The model was used by industrial departments of the Bank of Russia, of the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economic Development. It was applied for the analysis and forecast of dynamics of economic development of the Russian Federation, as well as for determination of the optimal credit, monetary, tariff and budget policy of the Russian government.
Keywords: computable (simulation) general equilibrium model, money circulation, Russian economy, monetary, credit and currency policy, scenario computations, forecasts.
Ovsienko Yu.V. (Moscow)
Economic Crisis and Its Peculiarities in Russia
Shown the institutional changes in Russia as adversely throwing the country back, and creating ineffective economy. Discussed the institutional changes giving hope for revival of economy and fair distribution of incomes, honoring the civil rights and individual liberties.
Keywords: economic cycle, monetary reform, shock therapy, institutional changes, price liberalization, natural and monopolistic rent, antimonopoly institutions.
Varshavsky A.Ye. (Moscow)
World Financial Crisis and the Increase in the World instability - the Problems in Russia
Russia's role in ensuring global stability and the need to strengthen the national defense discussed. Increasing global instability is shown; economic problems of ensuring Russia's security and defense-industrial complex developments are analyzed. Opportunities for finding additional resources for national security and global stability in general are determined.
Keywords: global instability, defense, national security, financial resources.
Dementiev V.Ye. (Moscow)
Financial Bubbles on the Long Waves of Economic Development
The theory of long waves of economic development helps to reveal "technological" factors of forming the financial bubbles. Up-trend of a long wave can be accompanied by such several bubbles. Economic globalization allows the developed countries to delay crisis approach. However such delay can lead to an increase in the sizes of the financial bubbles.
Keywords: financial bubbles, long waves, crisis, globalization, innovations, technological rent.
Varshavsky L.Ye. (Moscow)
Financial system and commodities market: bacchanalia of liberalization and efforts of regulation
The main stages, features and roots of the current financial crisis are studied. The evolution of commodities market over the last decade is analyzed, as well as measures to strengthen regulation and control of the markets. The problem of the US Federal Budget deficit and Federal Debt over the middle-range period is studied.
Keywords: financial system, commodities market, reforming, federal debt.
Livshits V.N., Tischenko T.I., Frolova M.P. (Moscow)
Crisis in Russia - a Glance from the Day before Yesterday, Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow
The character of the present crisis in Russia is analyzed. It is shown that it has got a long-term and system nature and affects all the industries and regions of Russia, as well ās all the spheres - economic, social, investment and the others. It is pointed that the main reason for its development is ineffective tactics of implementing radical reform in the country - according to the Russian variant of monetarist macroeconomic theory. A short comparative analysis is given concerning the results of the reforms in Russia and China, where they are being implemented according to evolutionary tactics, and much more successfully.
Keywords: financial crisis, system crisis, monetary theory, Washington consensus, stationary and non-stationary economy, strategy and tactics of reforms, state regulation of economy.
Ye.V. Ustjuzanina, A.G. Petrov (Moscow)
Crisis of the Corporate Patterns of Ownership and the Characteristics of its Process in Russia
The article is dedicated to the characteristics of the manifestations in Russian economy the problems caused by the institutional crisis. The content of the crisis, the antagonisms of the institute of the corporate ownership and Russian model of corporate control are analyzed. The problem of the constant transformation in Russia of corporate management model is highlighted. Principal crisis management novelties in legislation provoking the changes of corporate control model are discussed.
Keywords: crisis, corporate ownership, corporate control model, corporate management model, crisis management novelties in legislation.
Tsvetkov V.A. (Moscow)
Crisis Has Passed - Problems Remained
The author analyzes the basic channels and mechanisms of penetration of the world financial and economic crisis into Russia. Taking into account the analysis of the internal factors of strengthening the crisis phenomena in national economy, features of anti-recessionary policy are analyzed, the reasons its realizations negatively influencing process designated.
Keywords: global financial and economic crisis, anti-recessionary measures, monetary policy, budgetary expenses.
Bagrinovsky C.A. (Moscow)
Estimating the Future of Innovation Activities
The article review a number effective the federal and local governments' initiatives on intensifying the innovative activities in the Russian economy. Special attention is drawn to the plans to develop new products and processes in Siberia and the Far East region. Proposed the ways to accelerate the development and proliferation of novelties based on increasing prestige of the innovative officers and enhancing the activities in proliferation of information about new achievements and problems.
Keywords: innovations, tax discounts, technological parks, synergetic effect, national innovation system, offshore deposit, intellectual property, technological exchange, periodic table of innovative elements.
Denisov V.I. (Moscow)
Anti-crisis Regulation of the Land Laws in the Russian Agriculture
The never examined anti-crisis legislative measures that help to agriculture manufacturers are offered on the part of the state, including a complex of following measures: state repayment of the land and its transfer to the high-effective economies, reduction of all kinds of deductions from the incomes according to the results of their economic activity useful for the inhabitants of a regions. The scientific and methodological principles and analytical mechanisms of estimation of social trends of economic unit's activities proposed. The author gives a forecast of their response to state support.
Keywords: agricultural manufacture, land relations, state support, anticrisis measures.
Mednitsky V.G., Mednitsky Yu.V., Fattākhov M.R. (Moscow)
About Economic Crisis of the Productive Systems
Make use of decomposition of the optimal problem shown that economic crisis can mould from too overloaded of the productive system created in the management system.
Keywords: decomposition, optimal problem, Leontief's models, economic crisis
Tarasova N.A. (Moscow)
Involuntary Employment in Transition and Crisis
Structure of employment with the natural, involuntary, and shadow employment is analyzed. Structure of involuntary employment on microeconomic level, its leading role in transition and unemployment crisis decreasing is analyzed. Increasing of involuntary employment sphere in small monotowns is studied.
Keywords: structure of employment, involuntary employment, unemployment decreasing, microeconomics, crisis, monotowns.
Bukhvalova V.V., Petrusevich A.V. (St.-Petersburg)
Determination of the Optimal Production output under Informational Uncertainty of Demand
We consider a problem of finding optimal production output when the product price is fixed and demand is not stochastic but unknown-the firm meets with informational uncertainty. We get the optimal multi-step strategy to find production output, which minimizes the expected total cost of production (including alternative costs). The case of constant rate changes in demand is considered. It is necessary to treat differently finite-step and infinite-step models. The potential of the model is illustrated on the case of the product policy in ZAO "Ford Motor Company" in 2000s.
Keywords: Stochastic model, production output, demand uncertainty, optimal strategy.
Martinov G.V., Malkov U.Kh. (Moscow)
Developing the inter-branch model of reproduction and investment dynamics
The article is part of a research work of a system of dynamic models of analysis and prognosis of macroeconomic relations between the goods, labor, investments and money markets (Martinov, 1999; Martinov, Malkov, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2007). Authors describe the inter-branch model of reproduction and investment dynamics concerning its experimental realization. A model has a dynamic character, it operates with the linear relations between the production costs of material production industries and the output of goods and services in the consequent periods and repeats the theoretical models of Leontiev, Neuman and Kantorovich (Leontiev, 1958; Kantorovich, 1964; Modelling, 1973). It is a complex of different elements of applied inter-branch dynamic models widely known in Russian economic literature (Aganbegian, Bagrinovsky, Granberg, 1970; Baranov, 1968; Valtukh, 1970; Granberg, 1985; Klotzvog, 1969; Kpsspv, 1973; Makarov, Rubinov, 1973; Shatilov. 1967).
Keywords: dynamic inter-branch model, reproduction and investment processes, strategies of macro-economic regulation, economic development trajectories, economic growth.
Bendikov M.A., Frolov I.E. (Moscow)
Russian High-Tech Industry from the Point of System and Global Financial and Economic Crisis
Analyzes the root causes of the systemic crisis of high-tech sector of Russian industry, the main trends of its development in anticipation of the global financial crisis and the measures of stabilization and transformation of the sector.
Keywords: systemic crisis, high-tech industry, changing processes, upgrading.
Yegorova N.Ye., Bakhtizin F.R., Torgevsky K.A. (Moscow)
Scenarios of RTS-Index Dynamics in Post-crisis Restoration of the Russian Stock Market
The authors discuss the possible scenarios of RTS-index dynamics in the conditions of drifting from the crisis of the Russian stock market. Calculations of RTS-index dynamics were made on the base of a regression model describing the correlation of the considered index from the oil price and the price received with use of time numbers (on the monthly data), concerning the crisis phase of a market.
Keywords: stock market, RTS-index, oil price, scenarios of index dynamics, financial crisis.
Zoidov K.Kh., Ilyin M.V. (Moscow)
Analysis and Regulation of Cyclic Nature of Macroeconomic Dynamics in the Post-Soviet Space
In this paper the authors are using the methods of production relationships analyzed the cyclical nature of macroeconomic dynamics of the post-Soviet countries - Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Shows the directions and mechanisms for effective regulation of cyclic processes of transformation of economy in post-crisis period.
Keywords: production relationship, the empirical characteristics, economic cycles, the global financial crisis, analysis and management, the economic space of Russia Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
Imanov R.A. (Moscow)
Econometric Model of the Developing Economy (the Example of Turkey)
The article is devoted to working out of the new methodological approach consisting in construction of two-system econometric model of developing economies, covering the periods of planned economy and transit to market economic mechanisms. As a result of the analysis both methodological and practical recommendations on modeling national economies and inter-country comparisons are offered. It is shown, that the new two-system approach to modeling of a developing economy during its transition from the planned economy to the market one can be used to work out recommendations on economic regulation of two countries with similar economic development - Russia and Turkey.
Keywords: Turkey, econometric models, developing economies, double system approach, mixed economy, market economy, transition period.
Nikonova A.A., Krasilnikova E.V. (Moscow)
Crisis of Russian Human Development Potential: Methods of Analysis
Examined the key indicators of human potential crisis and its factors in Russia. Today crisis highlights crucial economic and social system disturbances, which reflected convergence of the cycle phase of global economics with the acquired inside problems and contradictions. Russia has lost fundamental competitive advantage, which created appropriate reserve of soundness human capital in the period of significant historical changes. This fact entails system instability and deepens a lag between Russia and advanced and developing countries. Appropriate regression methods for human capital's valuation and forecast are presented. The approach is focused on exploration of interaction the human potential factors, investigated on the base of the Human development index (HDI), which has been being estimated for 20 years within the framework the UN Development Program.
Keywords: human development index (HDI), HDI-factors, regression model.
Paison D.B. (Moscow)
The World Financial and Economic Crisis and the Space Activity (The World and Russian Aspects)
An effect of the global financial crisis at the international space activities and Russian space programs is considered. The major space industry indicators are analyzed for the major satellite application markets including telecommunications and Earth remote sensing. The institutional challenges before the Russian national space industry are briefly discussed.
Keywords: economic crisis, space activities, state support.
Tatevosjan G.M. (Moscow)
Russian Crisis Peculiarities and the Ways to Overcome It
Author proposition to overcome economic crisis by structure reconstruction and present methods of investment programs substantiations.
Keywords: economic crisis, structural reconstruction, investment program.
Tuganov V.F., Tuganov I.V. (Moscow)
Physical-Economic Approach to a Problem of Crisisless Development
Physical-economic approach to the market system, having revealed nonequivalence of the market exchanges and the nature of poverty, allows eliminating poverty.
Keywords: physical economy, physical kinetics of the market, a living wage, the elimination of poverty, crisis-free development.
Khrustalev Ye.Yu. (Moscow)
Cognitive Model of the Russian Banking System
The article introduces and discusses the cognitive model of the Russian banking system, allowing banks to investigate the effect of stabilizing the socio-economic development. The model provides selecting the most important to the development and effective functioning of the banks factors. Analyzed the effect of causality chain, identified factors beyond the control and management through various economic policies.
Keywords: banking system, globalization, foreign banks, institutional structure, credit-investment potential, world financial system, banking risks, banking system stability, macroeconomic efficiency.
Ivanov V.N., Ovsienko Yu.V., Tikhonov A.O., Yasinsky Yu.M. (Moscow, Belarussia)
Comparative analysis of institutional and economic dynamics in Russia and Belarussia (2000s)
Institutional transformations and economic dynamics in Russia and Belarussia analyzed. Factors of economic growth in both countries studied. It is shown that the Belarussian model of institutional transformations provided greater and sustainable economic growth, while the Russian model proved to be ineffective despite rent incomes during high oil prices period.
Keywords: institutional system, economic dynamics, economic growth factors, rent, monopolism.
Sukhinin I.V. (Moscow)
Basic methodological approaches to notion of property
Located and analyzed the basic methodological approaches to the concepts of essence of the property, being the base for property modeling (construction of various models) concerning the various criteria and preconditions. Emphasized that property in wide understanding represents a complex - the multidimensional phenomenon - and the certain relations, as well as historically changeable forms of these relations, and certain institutes regulating these relations. Property being the key category of social economy, and the principles, on which a number of other institutes are based.
Keywords: modeling, property, methodological approaches, comparative classification analysis.
Fridman A.A. (Moscow)
The problem of efficient usage of rough diamonds: modern context
The world amount of raw diamond mining is falling and no new sources discovered, while the demand for the raw diamonds is growing. These factors make the issue of efficient use of raw diamonds extremely important. The Input-Output model is constructed for the production of diamonds with unique system of raw diamond processing. The model allows calculating the weight loss of the raw diamonds (taking into account the high unit cost and rarity) in the process of production. The properties of the model are investigated; the existence, uniqueness and non-negativity of its solution proved. Since "production wastes" exceed 50% of the initial raw diamond weight, new processing technologies are required.
Keywords: raw diamond, diamond, model, solution, efficiency of production.
Akajev A.A., Sokolov V.N., Akajeva B.A., Sarygulov A.I. (Moscow, St-Petersburg)
Asymptotic models for predicting the long-term demographic and economic dynamics
The article considers the impact of demographic dynamics and technological development on economic growth. Proposed evaluation model of long-term economic dynamics, taking into account the mode of population growth with the return.
Keywords: asymptotic models, population dynamics, long-term economic growth, population growth with the return.
Skiba A.N., Garkavyj V.A. (Novorossiysk)
Resonance effect in innovative systems - conditions of origination and economic interpretation
The main manifestation of economic unbalance is cyclicity. Innovations life-cycle is described by means of S-curve logistic functions. Another important manifestation of economical dynamics is the systematic character (systemic) of changes and cause-effect relations. Systemic effect of interaction of manufacturing system elements with the technological innovations is of synergetic nature and originates as a result of coincidence of their life-cycles rising phases.
Keywords: innovation, resonance effect, S-function, synchronization, economic system.
Belenky V.Z., Zaslavsky A.A. (Moscow)
Logical basis for fiducial probabilities theory: inertness principle
Invariant theory of fiducial probabilities is based on Fisher's heuristic "inversity" idea. Search for foundation of this idea is an actual problem until today. Authors formulate logically clear "inertness principle": "random values which are free a priory must also to be free a posteriory". It is shown that this principle may be accepted to the logic basis for fiducial theory as a whole.
Keywords: invariant families of distribution, free random values, fiducial probabilities, inertness principle.
Makarov Yu.N. (Moscow)
Russian space in the world market: competition, problems and prospects
The article shows that despite the financial crisis and the severe budgetary constraints, the Russian space-rocket industry is able to provide its financial and economic needs through access to the world markets of high technology products and implementation of foreign orders for production of advanced space technology and services.
Keywords: satellite, rocket and space technology, high-tech sector of world market, industrial policy, international competition, commercial satellite, globalization of space activities.
Arutyunov A.L. (Moscow)
Concept of energy-efficient consumption of the energy resources in Russian agro-industrial complex in the post-crisis period
The author discusses the problems of the use of traditional and alternative types of energy resources for the needs of agro-industrial complex in Russia. The analysis of technologies and economy of liquid hydrocarbons production from biomass, and the manufacture of biofuel in Russia are given.
Keywords: Russian Agro-Industrial complex, alternative power industry, traditional types of energy resources, biofuel, prognosis.
Klochkov V.V. (Moscow)
The interrelation between the economic crisis and innovation development of science-intensive industry
The following questions discussed: 1) how global economic crises affects the development of science-intensive industries and their innovation activity? 2) how will the prevalence of science-intensive and high-tech sector in national economy affect it's adaptive abilities during macroeconomic conjuncture changes? Attention is paid to the branches constituting the science-intensive and high-tech sector of economy, such as energy and transport machine building, machine-tool construction, instrument engineering, etc.
Keywords: science-intensive industry, crisis, innovations, breakthrough products, "creative destruction".
Bagrinovsky C.A. (Moscow)
Models and Methods for Improving the Mechanisms of Innovation Development in the Russian Economy Based on Adaptive Control
The paper deals with the use of models and methods of adaptive control under the conditions of increasing uncertainty for decision in the modern Russian economy. The main object of study are the selected mechanisms of innovation development and their functioning in changing environment. A new approach to modeling the mechanism for updating the products and technologies, as well as the possible new objects of analysis on the example of the IT-infrastructure in the Russian economy proposed.
Keywords: adaptive enterprise, information technology, nanotechnology, production of nanostructures, innovation system.
Bulavsky V.A. (Moscow)
A Model of Uniting into the Common Economic Space
Two variants of uniting the producers into the common economic space are studied, the study being based on the scheeme of corporate game with collateral payments. One variant is based on the priced of the goods produced outside the model. The aim of management (rellocation of resources) is the output of goods measured in external prices. The second variant is baased on the structure of goods output. The priced being created inside the the economic system, concerning the increase of goods output within the given assortment. Discussed the comparison of the centralised and market models on the proposed model variants.
Keywords: corporate game with collateral payments, uniting into the common economic space, the aims of economic management.
Kozyrev A.N. (Moscow)
Modeling of Technological Progress, orderliness and digital economy
The orderliness role in digital economy is investigated. It is shown that L.V. Kantorovich's idea about replacement of usual addition with maximum operation can have many applications in models of digital economy.
Keywords: orderliness, idempotent addition, content, price discrimination.
Levin V.L. (Moscow)
Monge-Kantorovich Duality Theory and its Application in the Utility Theory
An article reviews the developments of duality theory for the Monge-Kantorovich general problem and its application in the utility theory.
Keywords: duality theory, Monge-Kantorovich duality, utility theory.