Motkin G.A. (Moscow)
Economic evaluation of the environment-creating functions of ecosystems
The work analyzes the necessity and suggests economic evaluation instruments for ecosystem-targeted products and services. The author considers the possibility of introducing payments for the use of ecosystems and creating the instruments for enabling compensatory payments for their degradation. It is determined that ecologically safe usage of ecosystems becomes possible when the material gain from their use does not exceed the financial evaluation of their functional ability to provide ecosystem services.
Keywords: paid service, economic exploitation, ecosystem, functional ability.
Borokhov V.A. (Moscow)
"Take or pay" contract for electric power as antimonopoly measure in the "day ahead" market
We propose algorithm of structuring an electric power delivery contract of "take or pay" type for a generator with market power in the "day ahead" electric power market, which - under the general conditions - ensures that generator's dominating bidding strategy in the "day ahead" market is equivalent to its dominating bidding strategy in the market with perfect competition. In a general case, contracted amount of electric power and (or) contract price depend on the amount of electric power production planned for such a generator in the "day ahead" market. We study the conditions of stability of the proposed method under deviation of the estimated parameters in the contract set up from their actual values. Such contracts can be applied in electric power markets to mitigate market power of electricity generators in the "day ahead" market of electric power.
Keywords: electric power delivery contract, market power, bidding strategy, forecast, antimonopoly regulation.
Koryakin Ye.A., Lapteva N.A. (Kirov)
About the estimation of agricultural production efficiency (on the data of
agro-enterprises of the Kirov region)
The proposed evaluating system of farm production efficiency applies an arranged set of methods for evaluating business efficiency in terms of the legal organization and the annual average number of workers. Farm production efficiency model has been worked out on the information from 295 farm enterprises. It allows to reveal the factors increasing farm production efficiency.
Keywords: efficiency, agricultural production, annual average number of workers, terms of the legal organization.
Voloschuk S.D. (Moscow)
Estimation of the social and economic significance of the enterprises of defense-industrial
The author shows a socio-economic role the defense-industrial complex (DIC) plays in the Russian economy. In many cases the high technology units have city-generating effects. The interruption of their operation will result in grave social consequences. The instrument of the method of a cost estimation of the social and economic significance of DIC enterprises is offered.
Keywords: defense-industrial complex, city-generating effects, cost estimation.
Bagrinovsky K.A., Yegorova N.Y. (Moscow)
Methods of analysis of innovation technologies on the basis of Farrel index
Theoretical questions of the analysis and estimation of efficiency of innovative technologies with a use of hyperbolic Farrel's index are considered for the enterprise which activity is described with the sedate production function. Examples of calculation of technological and economic efficiency for innovative projects are resulted. The empirical estimation rule of growth in requirements for investments depending on the change of Farrel's index is formulated.
Keywords: innovative technologies, efficiency, hyperbolic Farrel's index, production function, requirements for investments.
Belenky V.Z. (Moscow)
Budget characterization of Neuman-Gale model in continuous time
A version of Neumann-Gale model in continuous time is formulated and it is given its description by term of "budget" functions - potential function G and cost function g. These functions are the solutions of direct and inverse Bellman's equations, and they determine as the whole limits attainable domain ώ(x) for discounted trajectories issuing from arbitrary initial point x in phase space. Results of the article expand to continuous version well known properties of NG-model in discrete time.
Keywords: Neumann-Gale model, budget functions, continuous time, direct and inverse Bellman's equations.
Voronovitsky M.M. (Israel)
Herd behavior in bayesian choice and linear sequence of interaction
The interesting effect of choice appears in the Becker's known example when the choice of consumers concentrates on one of two identical under all characteristics of the goods (restaurants). The case when the choice of participants occurs consistently one after another and each choice happens only once is investigated in the given paper. We assume that for all consumers there are the same aprioristic probability of preference of one of two goods (restaurants) and aprioristic probability of rationality of the consumer. It is assumed, that the participant knows about a choices of several his predecessors or about of choices of all of them and for a choice uses Bayesian strategy. The collective choice is investigated at the large length of sequence and various numbers of predecessors which choice each participant knows about. In the case when each consumer knows about choice of one his predecessor only the effect Becker's example(herd behavior) is absent, but a herd behavior can to arise in the case when he knows about choices of all his predecessors in sequence, but consumers take into account also the own information, received by them a priori.
Keywords: Beńker's example, paradox effect, aprioristic probability of preference, Bayesian strategy, collective choice.
Tsurikov V.I. (Kostroma)
Model of incomplete contract and redistribution of income rights ex post
The correlation of the value of public wealth and the distribution of the income rights of contractors within the model of the incomplete contract is analyzed. It is shown that there is the optimum distribution of rights, when the maximum public gain is achieved. The influence of the weak protection of property rights of the investment decisions of agents and of the value of public wealth is examined.
Keywords: public wealth, distribution of rights, investment decisions, agent.
Knobel A.Yu. (Moscow)
Vertical integration, technological production chain, opportunistic behavior and the economic growth
Examined the determinants of vertical integration and its influences on the economic growth. Proposed the game-oriented model of interaction of the producers of the intermediate and final products. It is proved that the quality of institutes reduces the probability of vertical integration; while the productivity of the participants of the vertical integration influences differently on the probability rate - the more the technological connectedness and the higher the costs of opportunistic behavior, - the higher the probability of the vertical integration. Different stages of vertical integration differently influence the rate of economic growth.
Keywords: vertical integration, economic growth, producer, intermediate product, final product, opportunistic behavior, vertical integration.
Varshavsky A.Ye. (Moscow)
Problems of mutual changes of the main components of social stratification under the shocks
The correlation between the main components of social stratification is analyzed. On the basis of the elaborated model of distribution of resources that provides choosing the optimal range of differentiation the existence of tendency of decreasing professional stratification after shocks is shown.
Keywords: social stratification, resources distribution model, social resources, economic inequality.
P.C.Katishev, O.A.Eismont (Moscow)
Muscovites' Willingness to Pay for the Quality of Environment
The pollution of environment is a crucial problem of the modern cities, including Moscow. Environment projects need considerable investments. Efficiencies of these projects substantially depend on the inhabitants' willingness to pay for the improvement of the quality of environment. Thus the estimation of willingness to pay is of considerable interest. The hedonic models can be used to get the corresponding estimates. Using the hedonic approach the dependence of the price of marketable good (for example, flat) on its characteristics may be revealed. In the article the statistically significant estimates of Moscow citizens' willingness to pay for improving the quality of environment are obtained on the basis of hedonic model.
Keywords: environment pollution, ecological projects, quality of environment, Hedonistic models, Moscow citizens.
Production Functions of Natural Gas Production Industry in Sakha Republic (Yakutia)
The subject of this econometric study was the production functions of natural gas production industry in Sakha Republic (Yakutia) for 1968-2008. The production functions can be applied for short-term and medium-term natural gas production forecasting by the Sakha Republic Council of Ministers as well as by regional gas production companies.
Keywords: production functions, gas industry, Sakha Republic (Yakutia), forecasting, gas companies.
V.I.Danilov-Danilian, S.A.Ivankov, I.L.Khranovich (Moscow)
Coordination of Transboundary Water Use Strategies
The approach to the elaboration of coordinated transboundary water use strategies is analyzed. The principle of open control is investigated in situations when between countries there are no agreements on the transboundary water use or when existing agreements are reconsidered. In both cases the perfect coordination is achieved.
Keywords: coordinated strategies, transboundary water resources, open control, agreements between countries, international conflict.
A Model of Competition with Expenses on the Election Competition
This work looks at a model of spatial election competition with two candidates who can spend effort in order to increase their popularity through advertisement. It is shown that under certain condition the political programs of the candidates will be different. The work derives the comparative statics of equilibrium policy platform and campaign spending with respect the distribution of voter policy preferences and the proportionality of the electoral system. In particular, it is whown that the equilibrium does not exist if the policy preferences are distributed over too narrow an interval.
Keywords: spatial election competition, choice, political programs, voters preferences, electoral system, equilibrium
About One Method of Optimization and Its Application in Construction Polynoms of Trends with Self-Defined Parameters
The essence of a new numerical method of optimization - method approach parabolic top (MAPT), intended for finding the extremum of the set of functions. On the basis of the given method the methodology of the decision of the equations of plural regress casually distributed values of the economic and other rates presented in a kind of polynoms sedate, indicative and other functions in which exponents, the bases and factors are not appointed a priori, and self-defined calculation in the field of rational numbers is created. Classification of trends and ordering of methodical receptions of their reception is offered. Practical examples of numerical calculations and construction of the specified trends by the computer program presented.
Keywords: method approach parabolic top (MAPT), extremum, polynoms, trends, numerical calculations.
Method of Distribution of the Organic Growth between Different Groups according to their Utility Function
The author has investigated the distribution of limited goods in the context of the welfare maximi-zation which is based on the utilities functions in the groups. The methods of the specified service-able life distribution are based on the Rawl's and utilitarian's criteria of the public welfare. These techniques can be applied for allocation of subsidies between the groups with fixed initial income.
Keywords: distribution, limited goods, utilities functions, common welfare, group, subsidy, fixed income.
V.A.Malakhov , T.G.Doobinina (Moscow)
Model for Research of Macroeconomic Consequence of Greenhouse Gases Emissions Limitation Scenarios
The authors describe the nonlinear optimization inter-branch model of the macroeconomic consequences of different limitations of the greenhouse gases emissions in Russia. Considered the emission of greenhouse gases in different sectors, fluid emissions in power sector and emissions in carbo-consuming industries. Described the results of the model calculations based on the economic development scenarios of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development and Trade in 2008.
Keywords: non-linear optimization, industrial model, greenhouse gases (GHG), emission, carbon-consuming industries, economic development scenario 2008.
Short-term Phillips' Curve and the Inflation Processes in Russia
Given a short description of three popular models of real output and the rates of inflation in the short period. Their verification is produced. Given the results of questioning concerning the inflation expectations. The estimation of Phillips' curve parameters made for different models using econometric and calibration methods. The special value has the proposed method of evaluating the inflation expectations using the data of the Russian Statistics Agency.
Keywords: real output, rates of inflation, inflation expectations, estimation, Russian Statistics Agency.
Ivanov V.N., Ovsienko Yu.V., Tikhonov A.O., Yasinsky Yu.M. (Moscow, Belarus)
Comparative Analysis of Institutional and Socio-Economic Dynamics in Russia and Belarus (the 1990s)
The fundamental institutional and socio-economic changes which took place in Russia and Belarus in the late Soviet period and in the 1990s after the breakdown of the USSR are discussed. Special attention is paid to comparative analysis of institutional transformation processes and their impact on social and economic dynamics in both countries.
Keywords: institutional transformation, social and economic dynamics, comparative analysis, Russia, Belarus.
Zavelsky M.G. (Moscow)
Regularities of Economy and Economic Crisis
Development of economy is presented by the simulation model. Existence of superlong waves, explained by renovation and growing old institutional and motivational-world-outlook ambience of economy, in this development is found by calculations on this model. It is shown that this process occurs in the economic space, which is set by the reference system of economy variables as coordinates and possesses a dynamic geometry changing during time that draws this space displacement from one world-outlook-institutional ambience in other one, stimulating production factors substitution by each other according to particular regularities and correlations. The role of liberty and external regulation of economy in such motion and arising herewith new national and international form of wealth and its corresponding economic relations are revealed, anti-crisis measures with reference to the condition of modern Russia offered.
Keywords: economic cycles, long and superlong waves, motivational-institutional ambience of economy, simulation economy model, economic space, general value of individual lifestyle, unadjusted economy, crisis, anti-crisis measures.
Makarov Yu.N., Khrustalev Ye.Yu. (Moscow)
Mechanisms of Restructuring the Science-Intensive Industries (Example of the Rocket & Space Industry)
Model of restructuring the science-intensive industrial complex considered. Being based on the principle of constructive and technological affinity of the products, it allows to improve the effectiveness of complex functioning and increase the quality of management of high-tech products of different purposes. Basic principles and stages of creating big integrated structures concerned.
Keywords: rocket & space industry, rocket & space techniques, engineering and economic indexes, integration processes, models of restructuring, industrial and economic activity, financial and economic parameters of an enterprise.
Golovan S.V., Nazin V.V., Peresetsky A.A. (Moscow)
Nonparametric Analysis of the Efficiency of Russian Banks
In the paper nonparametric (DEA) and parametric (SFA) estimates of technical efficiency of Russian banks are compared. Two DEA estimates CCR (Charnes, Cooper, Rhodes, 1978) and BCC (Banker, Charnes, Cooper, 1984) are calculated. Their precision is estimated with semiparametric bootstrap (Simar, Wilson, 2007). Models are estimated separately for each quarter in the period Q3'2002-Q3'2006. Models include three inputs (personnel expenditures, provision for possible losses and other expenditures) and two outputs (net interest expenditures, net other operational income). Observed values of Spearman rank correlation vary from 0.72 to 0.89 for the two DEA models and from 0.56 to 0.91 for DEA and SFA estimates, which supports the similarity of ranking calculated with different methods. In most quarters foreign banks are more efficient than Russian banks (the only exception being Q2'2004 which could be explained by "credibility crisis" of the summer 2004). All models show that starting from 2006 Moscow banks are less efficient than regional banks.
Keywords: 1998 crisis, Russian banks, net assets, regional banks, competition, IAS, bank regulation, financial indexes.
Loskutov A.Yu. (Moscow)
Nonlinear Optimization of the Chaotic Market Dynamics
In the framework of the theory of dynamical systems a problem of stabilization of chaotic behavior of the good market created by competing firms is considered. The analysis is carried out on the basis of investigations of a quite simple model of two firms which follow the active and asymmetric investment strategies and develop in one and the same market. In the parametric space of the given model areas corresponding to its chaotic behavior are described. It is shown that by means of weak variations of the parameters corresponding to the efficiency of the investment size it is possible to suppress chaos and convert the dynamics of both firms to a periodic regime of functioning. As a result, the situation in the market is stabilized, and both firms increase their profit. It is found that for the getting this result it is sufficient that only one firm carries the given trade policy. Generalizations of the obtained conclusion in the case of a large number of competitors are presented. The elements of mathematical theory of the stabilization of chaotic dynamical systems are given.
Keywords: chaotic dynamics, goods market, chaos suppression, competition mode.
Agranovich Yu.Ya., Kontsevaya N.V., Khatskevich V.L. (Voronezh)
Method of Polygonal Numbers in the Procedure of Smoothing the Time Series and Its Application to the Research of Financial Markets Parameters
The method of the unilateral weighed smoothing of time numbers on the basis of use of the polygonal numbers, showing utility of appendices of methods of the additive theory of numbers and calculations of final differences is developed. This method of calculation of weight factors for sliding averaging is based on generalization of the decision of one A.A. Markov's problem. Proposed are the formulas of natural mathematical substantiation in the form of establishing the strictly limiting parities. The comparative analysis of the results of smoothing received in various methods of unilateral averaging proposed; advantages of the modified weighed averaging in comparison with the other methods proved.
Keywords: unilateral weighed smoothing, polygonal numbers, final differences, unilateral averaging.
Galochkin I.V. (Moscow)
Social Preferences in Economic Behavior: Methods of Measurement and Modeling
The author reviews the existing methods of measuring social preferences, which imply that the individual cares not only for his own gains, but also for the gains or losses of others. The common ways of modeling social preferences are described. The article also brings evidence of evolutionary stability of social preferences and their role in decreasing transaction costs.
Keywords: economic behavior, social preferences, gain, modeling, transaction costs.
Kolesnik G.V. (Tver)
A Model of Investment Value of the Corporate Control Instruments
A game-theoretic model of investment value of the corporate control instruments (stocks and shares in limited-liability companies) is studied. The effects of the equity allocation among the firm's owners and possibilities of alliance's formation are considered.
Keywords: model, investment value, corporate control, owners, alliances.
Strelkov S.V., Mastyaeva I.N. (Moscow)
Risk Capital Allocation Based on Cooperative Game Theory
This paper focuses on bank capital-at-risk coherent allocation problem. In terms of nonatomic cooperative game theory we introduce an approach based on the Aumann-Shapley value that defines a unique coherent capital allocation. For VAR risk measure we found an open form solution of the problem indicated above and the results are illustrated by an example of operational risk capital allocation in a commercial bank.
Keywords: coherent allocation, risk capital, cooperative game theory, Aumann-Shapley value, credit bank.
Ashimov A.A., Sultanov B.T., Adilov Zh.M., Borovskiy Yu.V.,
Borovskiy N.Yu., Ashimov As.A. (Kazakhstan)
On Development of the Parametrical Regulation Theory for One Class of Computable General Equilibrium Models
The authors present some results of the development of parametrical regulation theory elements taking into consideration the CGE models peculiarities. The effectiveness of parametrical regulation theory application on the example of one of CGE model is shown. Suggested are the optimal laws of parametrical regulation (for one or two parameters) of economical system development on the basis of the examined mathematical model. The bifurcation line for the given area of uncontrolled parameters values is constructed.
Keywords: computable general equilibrium models, parametrical regulation, discrete dynamic system (semi cascade), variation calculus task, extremal bifurcation.
Druzhinin P.V. (Petrozavodsk)
Estimation of the Influence of Economic Development on the Environment
An approach is offered, in which various types of functions are constructed, shown the correlation of economic and ecological indicators. Properties of functions, characteristics of key parameters, terms of aggregation and interrelation of parameters of the equations of different level resulted. Results of calculations based on statistical data of Karelia and Russia for the main types of the proposed functions described. The authors allows to show the possibility of using these functions, define the limits of variation of the parameters, to identify the periods in which the parameters of the constructed functions are stable.
Keywords: modeling, ecology, function, investment, environment.
Malishev V.L. (Moscow)
Transparency of Information and Innovative Development
Author analyzes the problems of the mechanism of economic activity adequate to the innovative development. It is shown, that the present mechanism does not correspond the present Russian economic development in the process of globalization as an equal partner of the developed countries. Traced the new methodological principles of functioning, based on the new understanding of the process of reproduction.
Keywords: industrial consumption, industrial product reproduction, mutual advantage, equal advantage, stimulating function of price, distribution function of price, profit maximization, transaction costs minimization.
Nazarov I.N., Kreyndel V.M. (Moscow)
Natural Gas Transit: Bargaining Model
An extended version of Rubinstein's bilateral bargaining model is applied to Russian - Ukrainian trading on gas transit. Stable Nash equilibrium is derived and used to evaluate the necessary minimal changes in the volumes of transit, which substantially improve Russia market power and confidence.
Keywords: natural gas transit, Russia, Ukraine, bargaining model.
Razumnova L.L. , Svetlov N.M. (Moscow)
Influence of the Financial Market on the Price of Oil
An econometric model of annual oil price dynamics is developed allowing for the endogenous classification of years with regard to the concentration of arbitrage capital in the oil market. Parameters of the model are estimated by means of the maximum entropy method. It is proved that during 1977-2007 financial factors had ascendancy over the oil prices. This effect had an opposite direction under an excess and a shortage of the arbitrage capital in the oil market.
Keywords: price of oil, arbitrage capital, econometric modeling, maximum entropy method.
Danilov V.I., Karzanov A.V., Koshevoy G.A. (Moscow)
Condorcet Domains and Rhombus Tilings
Condorcet domain is a set of linear orders on a set of alternatives where a simple majority rule yields no cycles. Using simple geometric figures, the so-called rhombus tiling, the authors construct the large Condorcet domains and investigate their properties.
Keywords: linear order, simple majority rule, weak Bruhat order.
Slastnikov A.D. (Moscow)
Optimization of Public Co-Financing in Projects under Public-Private Partnership
Developed a stochastic model (within the real options framework) for studying potentialities of public-private partnership in financing the investment projects. Author proposes optimization approach to determine a share of public co-financing in an investment project, which is optimal from the budgetary approach. The influence of model's parameters on the optimal share of public co-financing is analyzed.
Keywords: public-private partnership, investment project, budgetary effect, real options.
Mokeyev V.V. (Chelyabinsk)
On Eigenvalues Computation in Multivariate Analysis Problems of Economic Systems
The principal component analysis is one of the common ways of constructing the multivariate models of economic systems. However, when amount of factors is a large, its application is limited by the abilities of modern numerical methods, being effective only for small size matrices. The author proposes the use of the linear condensation method for the search of eigenvalues for the large matrices. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by specific tasks examples.
Keywords: multivariate analysis, principal component method, sales analysis, eigenvalue.
Mazalov V.V., Schiptsova A.V., Tokareva Yu.S. (Petrozavodsk, Chita)
Hotelling's Duopoly and Problem of Location on the Plane
Authors consider the Hotelling's duopoly on the plane. There are two firms on the plane and they declare the prices for the goods. The customers uniformly distributed inside the circle are choosing a firm. The choice (costs) depends on the price plus distance from the customer to the firm. Nash equilibrium is derived for the case when the distance is presented by the Euclidean and Manhattan metrics. Found the solution of the location problem on the plane.
Keywords: Hotelling's duopoly on the plane, equilibrium prices, location game.
Ye.G. Golshtein (Moscow)
On Convex Structured Modifications of Finite Non-Coalition Games
Certain mapping can be naturally associated with each non-coalition many-persons' game. If the mapping is monotone, the game is said to have a convex structure. Eefficient numerical methods exist to solve the games having the convex structure. However, as a rule, finite non-coalition games with mixed strategies have no convex structure. We propose to modify such games by perturbing the players' payoff functions, and we establish the lower rates for the perturbation values providing the modified games acquire the convex structure. Also, we present two new necessary and sufficient terms for a finite non-coalition many-persons game has a convex structure.
Keywords: finite non-coalition many-persons game, convex structure of game, monotone mapping.
Zujev A.S., Petrov Yu.I. (Moscow)
Determination of the Optimal Configuration of Complex Product in Industry
Authors present the approach to optimization of industrial products' properties, based on the multidimensional back sack problem solution with Bulle variations. Efficiency function and constraints have economic and technical interpretations. Configuration (properties set) of the presented type of products is defined by technical characteristics, added to some basic set, and by their combinations.
Keywords: industrial goods, requirements to the goods, product development, product competitiveness, goods properties, optimal set, optimal goods, range of goods, assortments of goods, optimization of assortments, industrial enterprises.