Ascheulov A.V., Sokolov V.P. (Saint-Petersburg)
Economic study of technical systems' feasibility - bascule bridges on the river Neva
For the first time feasibility study of the increase of reliability of a restorable technical system, a failure of which causes only financial losses, has been given. As a part of the complex criterion, unlinear expectable losses, caused by failures of a system, have been taken into account. As an example, the feasibility study of modernization of the bascule bridge on the Neva river in Saint-Petersburg has been produced.
Voronovitsky Ì.Ì. (Israel)
The model of the social interaction at forming a demand
The simple example of herd behavior when most of consumers choose one from two restaurants similar in qualities and prices of goods, was considered by G. Becker. Asymmetric choice of consumers is observable in the symmetric situation, which consisted in two similar and located near each other restaurant: one of restaurants is often more popular for consumers. The model of behavior of consumers in the example is formulated and investigated in this paper. The change of consumer's preference occurs in this model as a result of interactions of a pair of consumers. It is shown, that expected number of consumers preferring each restaurant, which equals a half of all consumers, corresponds to stationary distribution in case of equal prices in the restaurants. The state of the system, in which half of consumers prefers each restaurant, is most probable. This means absence of herd behavior for consumers at described use by consumer of local information.
Zakharov A.V. (Moscow)
The models of political competition: literature review
The author presents a review of game-theoretic models of political competition and voting. The paper begins with the formulation of the model with sincere voters, and reviews the results of this model — the existence of equilibrium in the one-dimensional case and the nonexistence in the multi-dimensional case. Provides various generalizations of the basic model — strategic voting, several candidates, probabilistic voting, etc. Special attention is given to stochastic models of voting. The methodology of empirical testing of voting models is given.
Istratov V.A. (Moscow)
Agent-based model of human behavior: is money able to buy you happiness?
Thanks to the emergence of a new modelling tool — the agent-based approach — a new class of models became available to the modelers that let them have a different view of conventional socio-economic processes. This work presents an agent-based model that regards economic domain known as the economics of happiness. The author analyses correlation between well-being and state of mood of individuals. The obtained results partly correspond to research outcomes of the previous authors.
Polterovich V.M. (Moscow)
The problem of creating a national innovation system
Different approaches to the formation of a National Innovation System (NIS) are discussed. In Russia, the current attempts of creating NIS resemble "shock therapy" whereas an interim institution strategy could be more fruitful. At the initial stage, such a strategy has to provide creation of mechanisms to raise country absorptive capacity. Institutions of truly innovative development have to be introduced gradually while a country approaches world technology frontier.
Factors that influence absorptive capacity are considered. We analyze mechanisms and specific features of economic policies stimulating modernization. It is shown that a system of indicative (interactive) planning is necessary to implement these policies. A methodology of measuring absorptive and innovative capacities is outlined.
The suggested theory is supported by experience of "economic miracle" countries. This experience also demonstrates that banking system and large corporations play decisive role at the imitation stage. However, the role of small and medium size firms and financial markets increases as a country transits to the innovation stage of development.
Gershman B.A. (Moscow)
Income inequality and economic growth: a theoretical survey
This paper represents a theoretical survey of models comparing income inequality with the economic growth. Both sides of the two-way causal relationship are examined: the impact of economic development on income distribution and the effect of inequality on subsequent growth rate. Existing theories are divided into groups according to underlying economic mechanisms.
Lavrovsky B.L., Shiltsin Ye.A. (Novosibirsk)
Russian regions: leveling or stratification?
The article considers the questions of regional development in Russia. It is shown, that the increase in regional differentiation for the last few years of economic growth (2000—2005) is promoted only by several regions. In the most part of "economic space" the stratification is not observed anyway. Rather a specific (local) regional polarization takes place. Within the framework of convergence model, it is shown, that if the tendency to approchement generated in the considered period in the most Russian regions continues, a distance between some average meaning GRP per capita in 2005 and steady-state value will be reduced by 1.5 times in the recent 20—25 years, and by 2 times in 40 years approximately. According to the accounts, differentiation in long-term perspective still remains large enough; the distribution of GRP per capita amasses remains below the average.
Afanasjev A.A. (Moscow)
Production functions of natural gas production industry of tyumen region and Gazprom subsidiaries in 1993-2007
The production functions of the entire natural gas production industry in Tyumen region as well as of Gazprom subsidiaries within this area during 1993—2007 were the subject of this econometric study. It has been ascertained that the labor elasticity of Gazprom subsidiaries' gas production is equal to the average (within this period) wage share with accrued items in subsidiaries' gas production costs and, therefore, the marginal rate of substitution between labor and capital is equal to their price ratio. On these grounds we can state the Pareto-efficient use of resources and cost minimization by Gazprom subsidiaries, and it would be inefficient (caeteris paribus) to divide Gazprom into independent gas production companies in Tyumen region.
Bagrinovsky Ê.A., Yegorova N.Ye. (Moscow)
Features and methods of solving the problems of coordinating the enterprise economic interests in the M & A dealings
The classic theory of mathematic economy with the optimal programming solves the problems of coordinating the business's interests. But now it's developing to solving the questions of merging and acquisitions dealings. This paper proposes the models for decision of the types of tasks based on the theory of Pareto and stable compromise of Nash. They may be used as examples for creating business alliances and so on.
Usov A.B. (Rostov-na-Donu)
The model research of corruption in three-level management systems
The mathematical formalization of the corruptions phenomena in the three-level management systems is organized. The economic interests of the participants is to maximize the income. The subjects of the upper level has to provide the stable development of the system. Enhancement is the motivating method of management. The author gives the algorithm for finding the point of equilibrium of the system, as well as the reasons for corruption and the conditions to eliminate it.
Iljin A.I. (Moscow)
Depreciation, amortization and the value of assets
The author gives a system analysis of depreciation and amortization of assets. He obtained the unified expression forthe value of tangible and intangible assets on the basis of the theory of optimal economic amortization. He provided the conservation theorem of the fundamental economic value. It is shown, that the difference between the fundamental and balance value of company is equal to the value of the sum of entrepreneurial and inseparable intangible assets.
Matveenko V.D. (St. Petersburg)
An "anatomy" of production functions: a technological menu and a choice of the best technology
The paper studies a representation of a "global" production function as a maximum of local production functions under a choice of technological coefficients from a given set — a technological menu. It is shown that such a representation takes place if the technological menu is a support set of the global production function. A representation of global Cobb- Douglas and CES production functions in such form is considered in details.
Zoidov K.Kh. (Moscow)
The evolutional approach and its means for the development of the economic science in post-soviet countries
In this scientific work the author discusses the problems of using the evolutional approach to the problems of modern practice of market transformations and its means for the development of the economic theory in Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). He showed that in transitive economy only the competition in all spheres of management creates a lot of disbalances. The conclusions and propositions of perfection system of anti-crisis regulation in the modern period were drawn.
Afanasiev A.A. (Moscow)
Production functions of natural gas production industry in Krasnoyarsk Territory
The production functions of natural gas production industry in Krasnoyarsk territory were the subject of this econometric study. In the models it is adequately described gas production process in terms of canonical econometric criteria and economic intuition. The production functions can be applied for natural gas production economic analysis, planning and forecasting by regional gas production companies as well as by federal and local authorities.
Terekhov A.I. (Moscow)
The analysis of nanotechnology development — example of carbon nanostructures
The scientometric analysis of R & D in the field of carbon nanostructures is implemented. The directions and prospects of carbon nanotubes practical use are considered on the basis of available data; the peculiarities of commercializing the nanotechnology innovations are considered too. The methods for multiaspect analyses of nanotechnology development (both the methods which are being applied and those for feasible future applications) are characterized in the brief essay.
Fomin D.A., Khanin G.I. (Novosibirsk)
The reproduction of facilities and equipment of municipal (community) engineering infrastructure
The problems of functioning of municipal (community) engineering infrastructure considered. The industry is found in crisis after analyzing the input-output balance of generating and transporting the communal engineering facilities. Shown are the reasons for unreliability of the official statistics. The alternative estimates of industry parameters made. The authors prove the need for the investment in the communal engineering facilities, given the scale of necessary investment.
Serov A.Yu., Smorgonsky A.V. (St. Petersburg)
The working computer model of a production enterprise
The proposed model of a production enterprise contains six book-keeping accounts that fix the basic parameters of its functioning. The inner financial and economic procedures, providing the production process, as well as customers' and suppliers' relations are put into the model. Giving the different starting inputs one is able to monitor the transition processes and the achieving (in favorite conditions) the stationary production regime or the suspension of production (when lacks the circulating assets).
Timofeev V.S., Kolesnikova A.Yu. (Novosibirsk)
Prognosis of sales for the retail enterprise
The authors propose the original approach to the prognosis of sales, considering the peculiarities of consumers' behavior. Instead of the usual field-research practice the authors proposed the econometric analysis of the insider's information. This analysis allowed to create the models for making prognosis of the sales of food using the rhythm of buying, characterizing different types of consumers. The model of probability of buying turned to be the most adequate for the interpretation of the results.
Akaev A.A. (Moscow)
Qualitative analysis of business cycles' influence on economic growth
It is given the qualitative analysis of differential equations' solution describing the cyclical changes of business activity and economic growth, system stability is investigated. Bifurcation point is estimated where the system loses stability and becomes susceptible to structural changes and innovations. The result of bifurcation is presence of self-sustained persistent auto oscillation in the system. It is shown that in conditions of fluctuation equilibrium levels have been changing, that defines rising economic growth. Mechanism of short-term cyclical changes' influence on formation of long-term economic growth's locus is educed.
Adamyan K.N., Bagdoev A.G., Wdanyan S.V., Karapetyan D.R., Safaryan Yu.S. (Republic of Armenia)
Nonlinear wave dynamics for some stochastic processes in economics
Some economical models on deterministic and stochastic wave processes are considered. The solutions are investigated in the frame of nonlinear gas dynamics and elasticity theories. It is shown that the mentioned theories of applications of mathematical methods of nonlinear wave dynamics are successful for dynamical economical processes investigations.
Sarkisjan R.Ye. (Moscow)
Preferences, utility and the measures of sensitivity of the multi-criteria alternatives
The measures of sensitivity and the functions of differential utilities were constructed to characterize the dynamic qualities of preferences and utilities of multi-criteria alternatives. These measures and functions were used to describe the phenomenon of decreasing effectiveness (or utility) characterizing the multi-criteria tasks. They formed the basis of the task of inside optimization, which decision produces the effective relations and connections for optimizing and choice. A number of important features of these relations are illustrated and estimated using the examples of square approximation utility function.
Astakhov A.S. (Moscow)
Is the country rich because of its mineral resources?
The article attempts to answer two actual interrelated questions: what role do the mineral resources play in the creation of national wealth, and — is our country rich for the mere fact of possessing the huge amount of mineral resources? The results of calculations of the input in the national wealth of the fuel and energy resources are presented.
Yasinsky Yu.M., Tikhonov A.O. (Republic of Belarus)
Asymmetric information: shifting markets and types of macroeconomics dynamics
The authors introduce and develop a concept of informational consistency of markets and propose a theory of effective information asymmetry. These effects, the degree of market information consistency may destroy, make ineffective as well as enhance positive types of macrodynamics The alternative types of macrodynamics are described. Authors develop interactional methodology according to which macroeconomic system is connected to the macroeconomic level, but shall not be reduced to it. Main conclusion: level of information consistency of markets and the market dynamics depend on institutional structure of markets.
Freedman A.A. (Moscow)
Efficient water pricing under heterogeneous demands
This paper deals with efficient water price paths for the economy with different supplies (groundwater, surface water and backstop technology) and demands that differ in water reutihzation coefficients. The effect of limited surface water inflow on optimal price and water allocation is analyzed. In presence of heterogonous demands the least-cost-first principle can be violated. Comparative static's analysis demonstrates how marginal extraction costs, capacity constraint of surface water and water consumption pattern affects the efficient pricing and consumption paths.
Livshits V.N. (Moscow)
About the two anniversaries of one classic research by L.V. Kantorovich
The article deals with the classic results of research on the potential optimal flows in linear nets obtained by Kantorovich in 1939, but published in 1949 (with Gavurin M.C.). Then the classic Kantorovich results are referred to the nonlinear nets. The models and algorithms of the flow optimization in the non-linear nets at the fixed and at the higher technical level of its elements are proposed.
Drigo M.F. (Bryansk)
Estimation of investment potential of the region on the basis of the resource-productive approach
The base principles of the resource and productive approach influencing social and economic position of region are considered. The blocks and matrix method of the estimation and planning of the regional investment potential is offered. Requirements of the scales of the investment potential necessary for achieving predicted volumes of manufacture in the main branches of investment activity are determined. The procedure of the specification determining a parity of investments and manufacture, necessary for branch balanced development is developed.
Smoliak S.A. (Moscow)
Ergo-dynamic models of depreciation of machinery and equipment
The author used the discounted flow method for valuation of depreciation of machinery and equipment. The proposed modification of this method does noet require forecasting of the technical and economic features of machinery for the future period of its work. It produces the formulas for forecasting depreciation being exactly enough correlated to the market prices of quipment of different ages. The proposed method allows to generalize the known Lvov's formula and use it for valuation of new and used equipment by correcting the value of its analogs.
Grachev I.D. (Moscow)
Stochastic model of functioning of the mixed economic systems
Stochastic model of macroeconomics using market values considered. Analyzing the present state of economic theory and practice, the author proposes the model that may be adapted for the use of lawmakers. Its simple mechanism of estimating different decisions, namely in the global economic crisis, provided the sound legislative support for these decisions.
Tsymbal V.I. (Moscow)
Methodology of analysis of non obvious optimization of socio-economic systems management
The author analyses the phenomenon called "non obvious optimization" which is regularly observed in socio economic systems. This phenomenon is characterized by the fact that decision making (programs, plans, parameters of functioning) takes place on the basis of a compromise between several subjects of governance, and then these decisions are declared to be optimal. In fact, there is no confirmation that the task was to be optimal. In this case the researcher is forced to clarify using mathematical methods in what conditions "optimal" is true. The issue turns out to be opposite the classical optimization and solution turns out to be controversial. This publication provides methodology for the analysis of a simple particular case of optimization for one digital parameter. Feasibility of the method is illustrated on an example connected to the reforming aviation industry in Russia.
Khachatryan A.Kh., Khachatryan Kh.A. (Armenia)
On an integro-differential equation in the problem of wealth distribution
The authors investigate the class of integro-differential equations with variable coefficients, which has important applications in econometrics. Prove the existence of one parametric family of its solutions. The structure of the parametric family is described, as well as exponential and normal distribution laws generalized.
Golshtein Ye.G. (Moscow)
On an equilibrium problem related to non-cooperative games
An equilibrium problem comprising, as its particular case, the problem of finding the Nash points in the non-cooperative multi-player game, is considered. An algorithm for numerical solution of this problem is also presented. Under certain requirements to the problem, the algorithm's convergence rate is estimated. Finally, a link between the equilibrium problem and a related variational inequality is established.
Kroutikov V.N., Gorskaya T.A. (Kemerovo)
The family of relaxation sub-gradient methods with double-rank correction of atrixes of the metrics
The family of relaxation sub-gradient methods with double-rank correction of matrixes of the metrics for solving non-smooth absolute optimization is suggested. Convergence of its algorithms has been proven with strictly convex functions. Results of numerical research are presented of one algorithm of family.