Belenky V.Z. (Moscow)
On internal rate of return on the investment project
Analyses the parameters "internal" and "induced" rates of return on the investment project. Estimate of a project is given from the point of view of a firm realizing it. Describes two types of the projects - one-time and multi-use. Each type has its special rate of return. The proposed approach takes into account the financial framework.
Volkonsky V.A., Krukov Yu.K. (Moscow)
On the role of small and medium-size business in Russia and in the world
Shows the basic serious differences of the Russian economy from the economies of the European countries and the USA - a much smaller portion of small business in the number of employees and the total output. Discusses the reasons for that, as well as the methods of state support for the small and medium-size business development.
Balatsky Ye.V. (Moscow)
Market pricing and the production cycle
The author proposes the dynamic model of market pricing and production, that allows identifying the influence of the character of the technological specifications of the company on the behavior of economic environment. The article shows, that the large economy of scale destabilizes the production and pricing trajectories. It is established, that the exogenous dynamics of demand in certain conditions will negatively influence the dynamics of output and create the aperiodic production cycles.
Osadchy M.S. (Novosibirsk)
Paradox of the planned obsolescence
Reviews the relation between amortization rate and the quality level of the durable goods and the production structure. Swen theorem on the optimal durability is proved for the case of the continuous time and obligations-free monopoly. Formulates and proves the theorem of the quality level being independent from output structure in case of missing the economy scale effect.
Shagov A.V., Kolbin V.V. (Sankt-Peterburg)
On some approaches to tariff policy management in the regional fuel-energy complex
Considered the dynamic two-level mathematical models of the tariff policy management for the regional fuel-energy complex. Discusses the advantaged of the proposed complex of mathematical models and the prerequisites for its application.
Pozamantir E.I., Tischenko T.I. (Moscow)
The estimate of modernization and development of the automobile roads network on the national economy
Proposes the method for the estimate of the efficiency of the exogenous variant of modernization and development of the automobile roads network in Russia. Includes the definition of effects, arising in the road industry itself, in the automobile transport, as well as in the industries consuming the transportation services and providing its products to the road industry and automobile transport. Estimates the effect for the final consumers of all types of the products resulting from the increased speed and reduced the transportation tariffs. The fundamentals of the method is a special modification of the input-output balance. Provides the results of the experimental calculations of the efficiency.
Versilin D.N., Chereschnev V.V. (Sankt-Peterburg, Perm)
Application of the correspondence analysis method for enterprise logistics management
Discusses the peculiarities of correspondence analysis in the research of supply and demand structure of the enterprise production and the meaningful interpretation of its results. Proposes the measures of the lines' and columns' "similarity" in the two-input tables of features' relation, that allows to extend the use of the classic method of correspondence analysis and to obtain the new practical results.
Danilov V.I. (Moscow)
Random choice and random preferences
A review of some works on the Stochastic Rationality and stochastic preference published in 1960-2003. Gives the outlook of the methodological issues.
Berkovich R.M., Lebedev S.S. (Moscow)
A new improving procedure for the nodal vector method of mixed integer linear programming
There is considered a modification for the M-algorithm of the nodal vector method. A new procedure for variants generation in order decreasing of evaluating function is proposed.
Amosov A.I. (Moscow)
Pricing and social-economic policy in Russia
Gives the author's view of the markets and market relations, the place of price in the exchange processes. Shows the historic predisposition of import and export price parity for Russia in the last 200 years. Discloses social-economic trends of the Russian economic reforms in 1990s, including liberalization of the foreign trade. Makes the conclusion about the need to keep the gap between the world market and home prices on export and import-substituting goods.
Golichenko O.G. (Moscow)
Higher education and science: integration or partnership?
Deals with the problems of cooperation of education and scientific processes. Compares the experience of European countries, as well as Russia. The decision is not only to integrate education and science, but simultaneously to separate and integrate them. Provides the basic principles of the organization of this dual process of cooperation and specialization of education process and scientific research.
Sotskov A.I. (Moscow)
The long-lasting effects of the tax and monetary government policies and the social losses
The author estimates the prognostic changes in the government economic policy and the consequent social losses. Two instruments of economic policy are analyzed: taxation and money printing, as well as their influence on capital growth, employment, output and other variables. Within the traditional competitive approach the author constructs the formulas of the marginal and integrated losses due to economic policy changes, and its descriptions in the comparative statistics. The digital experiment on the model is described with the figures calibrated to the Russian data.
Bronshtein Ye.M., Chernjak D.A. (Ufa)
Comparative Analysis of the Parameters of the Investment Efficiency
The common characteristics of the investment projects (payments flows) are analyzed. The authors give the modifications of these characteristics allowing to make a comparative analysis of the irregular investment projects. The change in the value of money is described as a bank policy - or a sequence of discount rates for a number of years. The procedure allows to simplify and unify its description. The article proposes the natural characteristics for the preferred investment projects.
Chernov V.B. (Chelyabinsk)
The Estimate of Financial and Commercial Realization of the Complex Investment Project
The definition of complex investment project is given, as well as the concept peculiarities and advantages of this mode of projects as compared to the traditional scheme are proposed. The author introduces the system of indexes of criteria for financial realization and the commercial effectiveness estimate of these investment complexes from the point of invertors.
Staroverov O.V. (Moscow)
Investment into the human capital
The qualification market is analyzed. The employee is looking for economic profit, trying to establish the best relation between the employers of different qualifications. Since the technological progress is unknown, all the employed are secured. It is supposed that the price include these expenses, reducing the payment by this amount.
Ovsienko Yu.V. (Moscow)
The institutional barriers to the modernization of Russia
The negative tendencies typical for the Russian society in the reform period are analyzed. It is shown that the tendencies are relevant to the institutional changes carries out by the authorities. The author discusses those changes that could, in case applied, turn the direction of development of the country towards social and economic progress. To gain this one must overcome the institutional barriers created by the authorities. The article is based on the results of the research works of academician D.S.Lvov.
Bezrodny O.C. (Krasnodar)
Methods and models of the investment management of the highway system of the region
The author proposes the structures and models for the system of management of the government investment flows into the highway industry of the region that would allow increasing their effectiveness. A model for the estimate of the effectiveness of the structural changes in the logistic management of the regional highway network is developed and implemented.
Lastochkin Yu.V., Itzkovich I.I. (Ribinsk)
Models of the Value-added and Profit Management in the Big Industrial Complexes
The research shows that the big industrial complexes don't seek the maximum balance-sheet profit, but prefer to get the stable long-lasting share of added value in the total output. The authors propose the mathematic model of industrial enterprise profit including the factors of added value. The article provides the statistical and harmonic analysis of profit. The results tested on the data of the long-period annual reports of the Russian and foreign engineering enterprises.
Kazachkov P.A. (Moscow)
On the estimate of the effectiveness of the advertising campaigns
The mathematic task of the estimate of the effectiveness of the advertising campaigns is analyzed. Using the data of the international experience and own research the author proposes the mathematic model, simulating the level of awareness about the trademark. Methods of the heuristic search as the most adequate instrument for sociological questionnaires analysis is approved, taking into the consideration the concept of complex systems behavior.
Anatolyev S.A. (Moscow)
Asymptotic approximations in modern econometrics (survey)
This article surveys the state of the art in asymptotic methods of constructing approximations in econometrics. Standard approaches that go deep back to the history of statistics together with more recent alternative approaches are reviewed. The article is directed towards practicing economists who use econometric methods in their research and are familiar with basics of the regression analysis.
Ptuskin A.S. (Kaluga)
A Problem of Capital Budgeting with Fuzzy Sets
The author describes fuzzy mathematical model and an algorithm for the optimal choice of investment portfolio projects. The model's parameters are represented by fuzzy numbers with the triangular application functions that may change depending on the risk level of the negative changes of these parameters.
Chistiakov V.V. (Yaroslavl)
Optimization of the renovation queue for the complex enterprises
Non-Marcovian problem of theory of schedules is solved to minimise the complete renovation time for the complex of N>>1 enterprises differing largely in their input-output indexes and consequently in their rates of finance contribution into one common investment fund. The percentage growth and inflation diminishing of these accumulations are also taken into consideration. By using the "interchange argumentation method" the expressions are derived for the depending on time of priority functions both in direct and reverse time. Proposed are a) a way to decompose the problem into a tree of subtasks of much less dimensionalities, b) a way of solving the subtasks of the lowest level by the branch-and-boundary method, c) so called "greedy" algorithm to find an (-) optimal solution and d) an exact solution in evaluating problem.
Nemchina O.V., Staroverov O.V. (Moscow)
Generalization of a model of migration of population and the grounds for its necessity
The aim of the article is to propose a generalization of pull-push models and to describe the components of their parameters and to interpret all of them. The authors show the connection between human migration intensities in the Markov models with the interpreted components. A numerical example justifies the necessity to enlarge the model adding applications to it.
Tjabin V.N., Gussev V.Y. (Obninsk)
Minimization of negative social and economic consequences of fluctuations of the world oil prices
The model, describing the influence of the world oil prices on an equilibrium foreign exchange rate is proposed. The analysis of model allows to reveal social and economic consequences of the equilibrium exchange rate fluctuations, as well as to base the recommendations for the monetary policy, providing minimization of the negative social and economic consequences of the equilibrium exchange rate fluctuations.
Subbotin V.Ye. (Moscow)
The accession of tax burden in oil mining and the parity between internal and external markets prices
The author estimates earnings, profits and tax burden in oil mining at different levels of world oil prices. He proposes and empirically justifies a hypothesis that there is a parity between oil prices in internal and external markets. The author derives the structure of the tax burden on enterprises. His conclusions are used for analysis of the outcome of the 2002 tax reform in oil mining in Russia.
Smoliak S.A. (Moscow)
The criterion of optimal company behavior under uncertainty
The structure of criteria for optimal company behavior under uncertainty is analyzed reasoning from the terms of axioms used for these criteria rather then from the preference relations produced by the criteria. This approach gives the Savidge and Arrow-Gurvitz criteria of the expected utility concerning the uncertainty of the environment and interval uncertainty. New results have been obtained for the situation when the two types of uncertainty are combined (for example: in any environment, equity capital of the company is an uncertain value, for which an interval of possible set of values is only known).
Kossachev Yu.V. (Moscow)
The efficiency of an integrated corporate structure effectiveness in a risky environment
Economic efficiency of a corporate group is analyzed with the help of a dynamic model, under the condition that the group members take risks of joint investment in reduction of unit costs of the maker of a corporate product. The main risk factors related to corporate activity are defined; their influence on effectiveness is estimated. Description of risks in terms of probability relations is examined. The author shows that intercorporate integration a number of groups contributes to dissipation of investment risks.
Vassin A.A., Durakovich N.D. (Moscow)
Models for non-cooperative foundation of competitive equilibrium
The article considers game-theoretical models of unorganized market where large groups of economic agents change their initial endowments by repeated bargaining in pairs. The authors examine relation between sequential Nash and Walrass equilibriums in connection with the conditions of exchange. It is shown that a possibility for every agent to bargain many times is necessary for the convergence of the Nash equilibrium outcome to the Walrass as the time of bargaining tends to infinity.
Gorniachek M. (Slovakiya)
The Markovian strategies and the effectiveness of multilateral bargaining
The author analyses the bargaining process of n payers. The subject of bargaining is the choice of vector of their utility out of a nonempty compact convex set. Before making an agreement, the players' utilities are defined by the point of dispute. The Markovian strategies in bargaining are analyzed. Present decisions do not depend on the previously made decisions, that do not influence present payments as well. Every equilibrium under subgames of the Markovian strategies brings to an agreement in the first period, which is low Pareto-effective.
Gorshunov I.S. (Moscow)
Struggle against the corruption cartel
The influence of corruption on the effectiveness of the law enforcement by the government with the help of fines is analyzed. The author reviews the present models of the economic influence of corruption and constructs the own model for the cases, when the corruptioners are joint into a cartel.
Borissov K.Yu. (Sankt-Peterburg)
Indeterminate equilibria in a model of endogenous growth
The author proposes an economic growth model based on the assumption that the consumers' discount rates are formed endogenously. It is shown that the set of balanced growth rates is an interval, and consequently, the stationary equilibria will be indeterminate in the sense that in any indefinitely small neighborhoods of a separate equilibrium one can find other equilibria.
Sarkissian R.Ye. (Moscow)
The elasticity of the multi-criteria tasks and the interactive procedures for its examination
The results of research of the problems of elasticity of the multi-criteria tasks are proposed. The preferences are shown on the example of the infinitely monotonously increasing utility function. It is shown that the term of equal elasticity of the utility function concerning the criteria needs the adverse relation between the value of criteria and the measure of its relative importance. The author proposes different interactive procedures for the approximation of the solutions for the equal elasticity, based on the method of hierarchy analysis, substitution mechanism and ideal proportions between the changed criteria values.
Astakhov A.S. (Moscow)
On bridging the gap between theory and practice of modeling investment decisions
Efficiency theory being an important branch of fundamental economics made a jump of historical importance in the last years. The essence of this jump is in transition towards multiobjective models of a procedural multistage and multilevel type and in the renunciation of "the solely right" measure of an economic result. Suggested models include concepts of interests and risks of investment process participants and several other important concepts.
Bagrinovsky K.A., Isajeva M.K. (Moscow)
Problems of analysis and modeling of the innovation development mechanisms
A complex of the main innovation development mechanisms is presented. It may be used as an instrument for investigating the characteristics of Russian innovation system. Principal elements of economic and mathematical models for improving the mechanism of production capital are suggested.
Safonova Ye.V. (Moscow)
The influence of knowledge economy on the social and economic development and the quality of life
The article is devoted to investigation of the relationship between the level of the economic development (and traditional institutional indicators of the development of the countries, including the integral indicators of the quality of life) and the level of development of the knowledge economy. The model of the linear multiple stepwise regression (with and without lags) is suggested. Box-Ñîõ and logarithm transformations of the data are considered and the multiple regression models, based on the transformed data are constructed. The system of the knowledge economy indicators is suggested. An attempt is made to create the integral indicator of the development of the knowledge-based economy for some countries.
Chernavsky S.Ya., Eismont O.A. (Moscow)
Economic analysis of associated oil gas markets in Russia
The paper analyses possible consequences of liberalization of the markets of associated oil (well) gas (AOG). Depending on the scale of fine on burning AOG and on oil price, either oil or chemical company may dominate in a liberalized AOG market. The noncooperative behavior of market participants leads to inefficiency of AOG market. In case of the cooperative behavior, socially optimal functioning of AOG market is possible.
Presniakov V.F. (Moscow)
Structural and functional approach to estimating efficiency of introducing ICT in business enterprise
Conventional methods of measuring economic efficiency produce unconvincing data when applied to estimating ICT efficiency in business. The suggested structural and functional approach allows to systematize and estimate the impacts of ICT on culture, politics, economy and technology, as well as personal and spatial aspects of fulfilling the enterprise's basic functions - meeting consumer demands. The new approach estimates the degree to which ICT improve the enterprise level of functioning in all the aspects of its activity.
Yershov E.B. (Moscow)
Linear connections in the space of prices and quantities, induced by Fisher and Montgomery indexes
In this paper the possibility of application of differential geometry concepts to the comparison of substantially dissimilar economic structures is discussed. For paths in prices-and-quantity spare Fisher and Montgomery indexes are expressed in terms of Divisia indexes, linear symmetric connections, for which these paths represent geodesic lines, are derived. The connection generated by Fisher indexes turn out to be Euclidian. Nonriemannian (non-metric) connection induced by Montgomery indexes has non-zero curvature tensor and determines mappings of tangent spaces depending on the paths. These mappings are defined by vector's parallel transfers along the paths.
Arkin V.I., Slastnikov A.D. (Moscow)
Influence of assessed taxes on creating the new enterprises under risk and uncertainty
The paper describes two models of investor's behavior in creating of a new industrial enterprise under risk and uncertainty. The models differ in the types of assessed taxes. The first model concerns with the current system of the property taxation of enterprises, when tax is imposed on a depreciated cost of enterprise's property. The second one is the real estate taxation. The tax is imposed on the land, buildings and constructions etc. It is shown that a replacement of property tax by real estate tax stimulates investor only for technically-intensive investments projects whose share of active funds exceeds some critical level. This level declines when the parameter of risk increases. This means that a replacement of property tax by real estate tax can expand investment incentives in "risky economy".
Agasandian G.A. (Moscow)
Financial engineering and continuous var-criterion in the option market
The problem of optimal behavior of an investor with own opinion on market properties is being stated and solved for option markets. It is shown that if the investor is guided by the presently popular VAR-criterion in the traditional form the results for the entire market may prove to be absurd. Modification of this method - a continuous version of VAR-criterion - is given. The new method more precisely reflects the market players' preferences and is free of the shortcomings. Some examples demonstrate peculiarities of the modifications proposed.
Smoliak S.A. (Moscow)
Comparison of the probability distributions according to the criteria of the expected comparative utility
The author analyses the problem of comparison of the probability distributions concerning the evaluation of the investment projects with random costs and results as well as the task of best choice out of several projects. The research proves the possibility of application of criteria of the expected comparative utility, being of more general character compared to the other known related expected utility criteria. The application of this criterion solves Allais' paradox. It is proved that among the expected utility criteria only the mean criterion and general Masse's criterion have the additive property.