Faerman E.Yu., Khachatrain S.R. (Moscow)
Housing availability enchancement on the basis of mortgage lending
According to the prospects of building-up the mortgage lending system of residental construction, of great impotance is setting availability thresholds for some or other kinds of houses for the population of a given region(town) as per statistics of its incomes, savings and housing. Methods and some results of necessary appropriate calculations are discussed.
Pugachev V.F., Putelin A.K. (Moscow)
Economics growth with the use of antiinfrationary taxes
Theoretical substantiation is given of anti-inflationary taxes on the basis of ideas of optimal local criterion. Various ways are considered of goverment impact on aggregate effective demand under tax counteraction of inflationary progresses. Results are presented of alternative model calculations illustrating possibilites of increasing aggregate demand and regulationg its stucture.
Perlamutrov V.L., Troparevskaya L.E (Moscow)
The enterprise and financial-and-monetary policy at the modern stage of economic development
Effective functioning of Russia`s monetary and finance system is determined by the degree of its correspondence to internal needs of production cycles of domestic capital formed by expanded circulation of enterprises that are the base of economic growth. Tools of economic growth stimulation are among both measure of creating a developed internal market and govermental steps aimed at finance resource concentration in strategic development directions.
Sotskov A.I. (Moscow)
On time-consistency of financial-and-monetary polices and the Felps problem
A characterizing of optimal goverment policy in the spirit of the Felps relation is suggested. With this purpose an additional reguirement of policy time-consistency introduced, which is secured by government`s obligations to "honor the accumulated consumer`s wealth". Consistency of stationary policy makes it possible conducting statistical characterization of optimal policy. A similar characcterization is conducted for a balance growth model with a production fuction of Romer type.
Bat`kovsky A.M., Korobov S.P., Khrustaliov E.Yu. (Moscow)
On one approach to evaluation of versions of restructuring defence-and-industrial complex(an example from aircraft building industy)
With the use an exaple from russian aircraft industry? an approach is considered to substantion of rational variant of restructuring defence and industrial complex. A method is suggested of comparative evalution of alternative variants with their description given informally.
Varshavsky L.E. (Moscow)
An investigation of science-intencive produts(in terms of markets of PC components)
A brief analysis of PC componemts market`s peculiarities is presented. A technique is suggested of determining firm`s invesment strategies and building medium-term scenarios of change in science-intensive products being characterized with a short cycle of development and production under a duopoly with a technological and price leader(in terms of the market for micro-processors). The technique is based on econometric models, methods of optimal planning and technological forecasting.
Pozamantir E.I., Tischenko T.I. (Moscow)
On national-economy efficiency of resource-saving in the sphere of transportation
A technique is suggested of determining national-economy effect of decrease of cargo transportation resource-saving allowing to take into acount adequately direct and inderect consequences of that decrease. The technique is based on the use and development of inter-industry balance built in accordance with the so-called "System of National Accounts" (Methodological Provisions (1998)). Few results of the calculations on the model developed are presented with the use of real data.
Mednitsky V.G., Mednitsky Yu.V. (Moscow)
On dependence of values of balance matrices elements on prices and technology of production
For matrices A>0 tahat form conditions of inter-industry balance (E-A)x=y; x,y>0, an equivalence relation is established/ Then it is used to solve inverse problem dealt with in the articles by Albegov, Bursa (1997) and Albegov,Bursa,Simonov (1996): reconstruction of matrix A and vectors x,y after some sets of estimates of possible values of elements which constitute them.
Nagaev A.V., Nagaev S.A. (Poland, Austria)
Risk-free approach of the European-type vendor with a smooth payoff function
An option of European type is considered with a convex payoff function. It assumed that price jumps of risky papers are limited from below and from above. It is established that under non-full market with discrete time there arises a risk-free income with the investor. Asymptotic properties of risk-free income in the case when the model allows a diffusion appoximation.
Ilyichev V.G., Ilyicheva V.V. (Rostov-na-Dony)
On dynamics of competitive social groups
On the basis of subjects` "force" and "rating" concepts, economie principles of group formation are given. Behavior of group composition with "natural" (rating=force) and counter-natural" (rating = 1/force) rating is stuped. Whithin the framework of a constructed dynamic model of exchange with subjects conditions of existence of stable states of groups are established. On the basis of computer analysis it is shown that the "natural" rating do not ensure creating the most powerful group.
Faerman E.Yu., Khachatrian S.R. (Moscow)
State support of housing markets: inter-regional profile
In 1999 in Russia the government commission for the development of mortgage lending system was established. It is intended to create a fund of regional housing programs support on the basis of competitive selection of projects presented by RF subjects. Methodic and model tools are suggested for objectivization of such selection of projects carried out with support of federal budget on the basis of recoverability. The activation of housing policy for expanding of availability of housings market is regarded as a concrete and important state activity in social sphere.
Arkin V.I., Slastnikov A.D. (Moscow)
Depreciation policy optimization for attracting investments under uncertainty
A model is built of an investor's behavior in the real sector of Russian economy under uncertainty. The model takes into account such elements of Russian tax system as enterprises profit tax, VAT, unified social tax, enterprises' property tax, as well as depreciation mechanism. The optimal rule of investment is obtained. An optimal depreciation policy is found, which maximizes tax payments to a regional budget; its efficiency for different-level budgets and for the investor is studied.
Osadchy M.S. (Novosibirsk)
Dynamic monopoly in durable goods market
Dynamic equilibrium in a market for perfectly durable good in continuous and discrete time is investigated depending on production structure. A theorem is formulated and proved about independence of quality level of production structure. A price of goodwill is calculated within the framework of dynamic model. It is shown that monopoly leasing returns the monopoly power in the market for perfectly durable good.
Livshits S.V. (Moscow)
On methods of production investment project evaluation
in the Russian transitional economy
The article deals with techniques of efficiency evaluation of production investment projects. In addition to the traditional known criterion indicators of project efficiency, such as net discounted return, internal rate of return, profitability index, and payoff period (discounting - exclusive or inclusive) new efficiency indicators are suggested: real net future value, real net discounted return, real internal rate of return, real profitability index, real pay-off period. New indicators of production investment project efficiently give a more correct account of the specificity of Russia's transitional ecocomy.
Zagaitov I.B., Yanovsky L.P. (Voronej)
Analysis of regularities and forecast of inter-year variations in agricultural crops
In a number of investigations the authors have found long-term regularities of variations in time-series of yields. It has made possible to develop a technology of forecasts under the tide of "ZONT" that has provided (since 1970th) forecasts of inter-year crop variations in the RF (with a justifiability of over 86%). The "ZONT" technology under the current shortage of production and financial resources makes it possible: a) to cardinally improve data support the effective maneouvres with structure and location of activity, more flexible technologies of conducting works that allows to increase volumes of production and improve its quality; b) being informed of long-term forecasts in foreign countries to raise efficiency of foreign trade activity; c) to improve management balances of material resources; actively influence price formation processes in agro-industrial complex/ to optimize volumes, structure and distribution and placement of reserve funds and inventrories.
Smolyak S.A. (Moscow)
A firm's optimal behavior in a financial market and the discount rate
A model examines a firm's optimal behavior in a financial market under full information. It makes it possible to specify and modify the efficiency criterion structure of investment projects implemented by the firm, the traditional definition of discount rate, and rule of estimating of investment project financial feasibility. From the built model is derived that in the general case, the discount rate determined as the rate of money valuations decrease in the optimal plan is time-variant and depends not only on market situation but also on the firm's financial position. It is found that the efficiency criterion of investment projects implemented by the firm, which is adequate to the firm's interests differs from the net profit value (NPV) criterion. In addition to discounted sum of the project's cash flows, one must take into account also the market value of assets created under the project, which facilitates raising loans.
Zhitkov V.A., Isaeva M.K., Tsarfin L.V. (Moscow)
A formal method of manager skills evaluation
A formal method is suggested for evaluating a manager skills to reach his own goals in running economic objects. The method is based on evaluating traces of the manager's utility functions that could be got through the special test.
L. van Vissen, Popkov A.Yu., Popkov E.Yu., Popkov Yu.S. (Niderland, Moscow)
A model of labor market with an entropy operator (competition of cohorts)
One of variaties of the factor model of population movement where as mobility factors the following parameters: own competitiveness and its intensity, relative competitiveness and intensity of its distance function, demand and supply, relative cohorts utility intensity and knowledge aging intensity. It is shown how one could estimate these parameters from available statistical data and which data specifically.
Danilov-Daniljan V.I. (Moscow)
The natural rent and natural resources use management
Definition of the natural rent is given. Its specificity for the description of different natural resources with the reference to a problem of its calculation is considered. Outlines the basic discrepancy between the opportunities of information supply of calculations and the substantial requirements of the possible use. Two approaches to the calculation of the natural rent (in microeconomic aspect) with the help of optimization models and on the basis of trailing expenditures estimation are analyzed. Discrepancy of theoretical preconditions of both approaches to the real conditions of resource-use management is stated. Proves, that these negative conclusions are hardly significant for practice as in budgettax system a number of elements may successfully perform a function of redistribution of the natural rent. It is mentioned, that payments for use of natural resources is one of such elements, being the main function of rationalization of wildlife management.
Zoidov K.Kh. (Tadgikistan)
Evolutional and institutional approach, and the methodology for realization of anticrisis measures in transitional economics
Application of the evolutional approach to the analysis of the transformation crisis of the Russian economy is considered. Overcoming the crisis is considered on the base of business-oriented government regulation model. Evolutional outcome of the Russian economy from present transitional crisis is realized in connection with the economic policy combining controled evolution of the present economic systems and creating the conditions for their independent auto-evolution.
Starkov O.Yu. (Moscow)
Evolution and transplantation of mortgage market institutions
The paper examines the transplantation of economic institutions upon evolution patterns of mortgage market insitutions (MMIs). The research is associated with reforming housing finance system in transition economy. We propose a general scheme of MMI evolution. We argue that MMI propagate in the world by means of transplantation than by spontaneous origination. Using empirical data we confirm Polterovich's hypothesis of acceleration and structural analogy for institutional transplant's evolution. Efficiency of transplantation strategies is analyzed. Recommendations of stepwise transplantation of MMIs in Russia are given.
Kazakevich G., Torlina L. (Australiya)
Monopoly competition and monopoly in the markets of information products
Devoted to a new direction of microeconomic researches. Authors base their approach to the analysis of the markets of information products on updating some sections of neoclassic microeconomics: theories of a consumer choice and the manufacture in monopoly competition and monopoly. The authors' theoretical conclusions explain some known facts concerning competition and distribution of information products.
Lapo V.F. (Krasnoyarsk)
The expected influence the regional investment distribution: agglomeration approach
Empirical investigation of spatial investment distribution in Russia in framework of agglomeration theory of new economic geography has been conducted. The econometric model with investor expectations based on the accelerator model has been proposed. The hypothesis of the agglomeration theory has evidence. It was found that investor expectation could attract the investments in regions and favor the increasing production and investment concentration.
Lavlinskiy S.M. (Novosibirsk)
The economic evaluation of the mineral resource deposits during
the transition period
The paper describes the fundamental idea of the evaluation method for a concrete deposit - calculation of the natural annuity through machine simulation of the deposit's exploring process by a real investor within the frames of transition period of economic mechanism and the tendencies of the world resource markets development.
Shapot D.V., Karbovsky I.N., Lukatsky A.M., Fiodorova G.V. (Moscow)
An economic behavior simulation model of the producers of goods and services
Economic behavior is investigated at the stage of establishing market relations. Producers are represented as a set of interacting economic subjects. Economic behavior of subjects is modeled with possible episodes of unfair behavior. The purpose of the investigation is forming effective mechanisms of compliance with state statutory acts. A simulation multi-agent model is chosen. It is shown that with fulfillment of sufficiently enough conditions of "fair competition", all local market agents can get a significant increment of profitability. Largest relative profitability increments are got by small and low-profit enterprises.
Konnov I.V. (Kazan')
About one class of economic balance models
The static model of economic balance in which budgets of consumers are fixed is considered, and the offer of manufacturers is defined on the basis of a technological matrix. It is shown, that the model is formulated as a saddle-value task to a point of concave-convex function. The dual method of the splitting, allowing to find the decision of the problem without additional conditions is offered.
Anisimov A.N. (Moscow)
Liberalization Optimum and its Specific Features in the New Market Economy
The problems of the liberalizational optimum of the market economy are studied. The analyzed factors provide changes in this optimum. It shows, that the conditions for liberalizational optimum in developed countries are not the same as in the new market economies, because of a shot life-time of these countries under the market forces. The liberalizational optimum for the new market economies, including the Russian, is given.
Peresetsky A.A., Karminsky A.M., A.H.O. van Soest (Moscow, Niderland)
Modeling Russian Banks Ratings
The paper presents econometric analysis of the of Russian banks ratings, and the experts' opinion based on a survey, designed in a framework of the project. From the ratings and the survey we derived the factors that in the experts' opinion and in the rating agencies' opinion are most important for bank reliability. The models of the ratings and experts' opinions were designed for real and virtual banks. We constructed the model ratings of the Russian banks. These models use only publicly available information and hence could be used as an early warning system of the current bank reliability.
Tatevosjan G.M., Pisareva O.M., Sedova S.V., Simonova N.I. (Moscow)
Comparative Analysis of Regional Economic Indexes
The analysis of economic indexes in 79 regions of the Russian Federation given. Presented the analytical and calculative results, as well as the formal and substantial methods. At the 1st stage the authors use cluster analysis, and compare the economic indexes of the regions, using Ward's method. The substantial analysis allows to compare the economic results with the efficiency. Gives the groups of the economic regions according to the types of dominant economic policy.
Sibgatulin V.G., Lavlinskyi S.M. (Novosibirsk)
About Choice of Special Financial Fund Structure for a Territory Rich in Raw Materials
For a resource-type region the different models of stable development financial institutes are compared. It clears up which of the special financial fund structures and under what conditions within a fixed time horizon ensure a stable development of some territories of Krasnoyarsky krai.
Ivanov V.N., Ovsijenko Yu.V. (Moscow)
Trade Dynamics in the Reform Period in Russian
Trends in Russian wholesale and retail trade are analyzed. It is shown that the trade share in GDP is enormously high which is explained by a huge increase in trade margins. Extremely high trade margins, especially for oil and gas have a negative impact on Russian social and economic development. Negative trends in Russian trade also include the lowering of productivity, the increase in shadow incomes and wages, a great regional differentiation. Measures to improve the present situation are proposed.
Kononov Yu.D., Kuklina A.Yu., Tyrtyshny V.N. (Irkutsk)
Evaluation of Macroeconomic Effects of Energy Cost Increase
Describes methodological approach and proposes a system of models to evaluate the possible effects of energy and fuel price variation on the national economy, living standard and the federal budget. Preliminary results of experiment computations of possible macroeconomic effects of electricity tariff rise are presented.
Andrijenko Yu.V. (Moscow)
Wellbeing and Unequality - a Factor of Crimes
In the theoretical model with heterogeneous agents, in which everyone can be a criminal or a victim, the risk to be a victim of property crime is higher for a richer agent living in a poorer country. Higher disparity in income distribution has an ambiguous impact. For the enough rich agents the risk is lower while for the others it is higher. Empirical results obtained on international micro data in part support the theoretical conclusions. Richer people more often become victims of crime against personality and property. In a country with more youth and unemployment, higher income and inequality in income, the risk is also higher as for inhabitants of large megapolicies. However, the average income has non-monotonic influence. In higher income countries the risk is lower.
Tkachev A.N. (Krasnodar)
The Models of Investment Management in Agricultural Production
The proposed are structures of investment management in agro-industrial production for the system of state investment management. The relations between phases and models of investment allocation shown. In the proposed technique and models of allocation of the state investments capacities of the agro-industrial enterprises are interrelated with a complex estimation of industrial resources. This estimate is an integrated indicator of the production capacity of an enterprise, that is of its capacity to potentially produce the planned amount of product in the specified interval of time.
Gadzhiev F.A. (Kazahstan)
Balance with the Transferable Costs in a Model with Convex Communications (Connections)
Proves the existence of balance in a given model of economy in which the admissibility of distributions is understood as the coordinated four concerning in some convex conformity. It shows, that in a model with transferable costs there is no balance without respect of a positive uniformity and the theorem of the balance existence.