Summary

Balatsky E.V. (Moscow)  Reproduction cycle and tax burden
IN the article, a methodology is stated of estimating the maximum permissible level of tax burden for legalentities where the economic structure can effect extended reprodution. The methodology has been tested on Russian statistical data. Analyzed are Laffer's effects as applicable to the aggregate tax burden. An approach is developed to estimating nominal and effective tax burden and the corresponding experimental calculations have been carried out. Foreign investment potentialities for stimulating economic growth in the recipient country are discussed and the role of fiscal, investment and technological factor in this process is shown. Disclosed are shortcomings of the modern tax system of Russia.

Bagrinovsky K.A., Prokopova V.S. (Moscow)  A new approach to analysis of inter-industry exchange equivalence
Three concepts of inter-industry exchange (HE) equivalence are considered. One of them corresponds to the payment according to labor principle, the second - to equal rate of return on capital advanced in different industries under inter-industry competition of capital. The third concept of HE equivalence is connected with simultaneous influence of the two above-named principles.

Malyshev V.L. (Moscow)  "The rules of the game" and transaction prices
The article deals with problems of introducing relationships, peculiar to institutional norms of behavior in the real economic mechanism of manufacturers' activity. In this case, initial parameters are estimated gross effect of the use the product at the customer's (the upper limit of prices).

Goussev A.A., Kozmenko S.N., Kozmenko O.V. (Moscow, Sumy)  Emergency situations: economic damage and investments in the prevention
More exactly defined is the terminology applied in investigation of economic problems of emergency situations of nature and anthropogenous origin. Methods of probability and value estimation of economic damage and first of all - of indirect one. Methodological grounds of managing emergency situations at different stages of their development are considered. Also the problem of rationalizing the allocation of limited investment resources for anti-catastrophe purposes among several regions of a certain territory is considered and an appropriate methodology is suggested.

Glazyrina I.P., Glazyrin V.V. (Tchita)  Ecological debt and information support of decision-making procedures
Some issues of state regulation of nature use in resource-type regions are considered These territories possess vast stocks of natural resources, including renewable ones, and indisputable "potential of sustainable development". However, economic processes observed during the transition period have not yielded the expected economic result in spite of comsiderable "extraction of nature capital" and, at the same time, have resulted in essential degradation of ecosystems. Not the last role was played by orientation of the state policy in the field of managing natural resources towards mechanisms of decentralized markets. In the paper, a transition is suggested to another model of nature use regulation developed on the basis of the ecological debt concept and providing for a more active position of the state. An algorithm is considered whose function is to minimize the ecological debt. Described is a scheme of constructing an information system to support decisions on the basis of this algorithm.

Dorofeyev E.A. (Sankt-Peterburg)  Floating coupon rate bonds: pricing principle
The paper presents the rules for circulation of floating coupon rate bonds and their theoretical pricing is studied on the basis of an arbitration model. Original results are also stated on the applicability of this model to the Russian OGSZ market.

Malyutina M.S. (Moscow)  Macroeconomic aspects of the pension system reform: analysis of the generations intersection model
The article deals with studying macroeconomic aspects of the pension reform. A model is considered of two intersecting generations economy and it is shown that transition to a cumulative pension system for an economy with shortage of capital can essentially increase the rate of savings and stimulate economic growth. Pareto non-worsening transition to a new pension system can be achieved only if general efficiency of the economy increases due to a reform.

Kleiner G.B., Piontkovsky D.I. (Moscow)  Multi-factor production functions with constant marginal factor substitution elasticity
A new characteristic of multi-factor production functions is introduced. It is in a certain sense dual to pair elasticity of factor substitution - so-called proportional growth elasticity, which is production scale elasticity of marginal substitution rate. Multi-factor production functions are investigated with constant elasticities of substitution and proportional growth for given (or all) pairs of factors. It is shown that the class of such production functions is broad enough. In particular, it contains the class of Cobb-Douylas functions, although it does not include (except degenerate variants) Solow and Mukerji functions. A full desctiption of such functions, depending of three or four factors. Also some sufficient conditions are stated for the case of arbitrary number of factors. In addition, a full classification is given of quasiseparable functions with this condition. The behavior of isoquantas of such functions from the point of view of production with unlimited growth of one of the factos.

Gavrilets Yu.N., Efimov B.A. (Moscow)  A game-theoretical model of aims forming in a reference group
The article deals with a model of forming opinions of members of a collective under influence of certain social and psychological factors. It is assumed that each participant strives for adjusting his (her) aims in such manner that a certain functional (an analogue of "psychological energy" cost) be at minimum level. In this case. the interaction process is modeled by a certain iterative procedure of exit to the state of equilibrium (in Nash's sense) of a special game of m persons. The existence of game equilibrium in the generalized game and convergence of the iterative process to this equilibrium are proven. Sufficient conditions of uniqueness and Pareto optimality of the game equilibrium have been found. Given is an analytical expression of the game equilibrium for a special class of such games.

Kossachyov Yu.V. (Moscow)  Examining the stability of a dynamicmodel of financial and industrial corporate structure
A dynamic model is investigated of interaction of enterprises within the framework of a corporate financial and industrial group with vertical integration. The availability of credit and shareholder ties. At the same time. the bank, investing in decrease of the manufacturer's unit cost, occupies a dominating position. Dynamic stability is connected with arriving at equilibrium situation in a differential game. It is shown that in meeting certain conditions, each enterprises of the group gets the maximum guaranteed result, exceeding the analogous result in the case of independent activity which determines economic incentive of the participation in the group during the whole period.

Pugachev V.F., Pitelin A.K. (Moscow)  National economic evaluation of currency
Numerical interrelations between financial and national economic efficiency of economic decisions are investigated. A methodology for calculating effect multipliers (EM) with the use of a simulation model of the Russian economy is suggested. Magnitudes of currency effect multipliers (CEM) are calculated for various economic policy variants. The influence of (CEM) upon investment evaluation is analyzed.

Varshavsky A.E. (Moscow)  Modeling non-payments and money demand in the barter economy of Russia
On the basis of analysis of main indicators and factors of non-payments and barter expansion, it is shown that the non-payments reflect systemic changes in the Russian economy connected with changes in financial turnover functioning. The results of the analysis are used for specification and estimation of parameters of econometric models, including two models: those of effective demand and non-payments. The inclusion of non-payment factors in the model of effective demand distinguishes it from others. A rather simple aggregated macro-economic model has been developed which is described by a system of linear equations and with the use of it analytical relations have been obtained, allowing to estimate the influence of non-payments upon GDP and to develop justified recommendations on stabilization of the Russian economy.

Afanasyev A.A. (Moscow)  An equilibrium model of the money-and-barter economy
Investigated are some macro-economic causes of the rise of barter in a monetary economy which include monetary and strict tax policy of the state. On the basis of a dynamic equilibrium model, two cases of barter are analyzed. In the first case, the barter appears as a response to a strict monetary policy of the state which is characterized by low rates of money supply growth. In the second one - in response to a soft monetary policy of the state which is characterized by high rates of money issue. Considered are conditions of the existence of money-and-barter equilibrium as well as several numerical examples. In conclusion, it is shown that the first case is peculiar to a postplanned economy and the second - to a market one.

Solntsev V.N., Kholodilin K.A. (St.-Peterburg)  On manifestations of long-term tendencies in the modem economic crisis in Russia
The paper tries to estimate the scale of current economic crisis in Russia and to reveal the combination of the factors contributing to it. The latter include transformational factors (those related to the transition process) and evolutionary ones (forces inherited from the previous development path of the economy). The conclusions of the paper are based on the analysis of the empirical data using a brand-new statistical technique - Caterpillar method.

Guriyev S.M., Pospelov I.G., Shaposhnik D.V. (Moscow)  A model of general equilibrium in the presence of transaction costs and money substitutes
Within the framework of the model of general equilibrium with transaction costs and money substitutes [1], equilibrium is considered with non-payments that are treated as mutual credit of enterprises. It is shown that the equilibrium with non-payments differs from the equilibrium with barter considered in [1]. Equilibria with non-payments turn out to be inefficient and, in the case of general state, they are non-unique. It is shown that in an economy with transaction costs and money substitutes, enterprises get incentives to integration which are interpreted as one of explanations of financial-and-industrial groups formation.

Yanovsky L.P. (Voronej)  A dynamic model of survival of a large enterprise with rentseeking management
In the paper, a dynamic model of behavior of a large firm in a transition economy is studied. Unlike the famous Baumol's model [I], large firms in a transition period maximize not only total sales volume but also, at the same time, the firm's managers maximize their total income. The degree of maturity of the transition economy is taken into account through weight coefficients in the integrand of the objective functional. Obtained are conditions of a firm's downfall and conditions of a firm's stabilization depending on the managers' behavior.

Vygon G.V., Pomansky A.B. (Moscow)  Analysis of relationship between technological efficiency and companies' market capitalization
In this paper, we suggest to use the well-known Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) for identifying undervalued companies within a homogeneous group. This approach may be useful for testing the hypothesis about the stock market efficiency. Capitalization dynamics is considered of the 13 largest oil-and-gas corporations for the first quarter of 1999. For 61 trading day at NYSE, the corresponding efficiency coefficients were calculated. The analysis of the coefficients obtained has shown that the stock market in the USA on the average is a weak-form efficient one. However, the approach suggested, in principle, allows identifying companies that at some moment turn out to be undervalued as compared with the others from the same group.

Belenky V.Z., Smirnov V.N. (Moscow)  Optimal management structure in a two-parametric one-dimensional stochastic model of investing (the case of exponential distribution)
The model considered in the work represents one of rare cases when it is possible to obtain a detailed description of optimal management synthesis. Earlier, a variant of the model was investigated where the required investment volume, being described as a random variable had a uniform distribution. In this work this distribution is given as exponential. As a result of it five different types of optimal strategy have been obtained. It is shown that the possible number of fixed points increases up to two (earlier, there was one point at the most).

Ovsienko Yu.V., Roussakov V.P., Soukhova N.N. (Moscow)  Labor pension in the accumulation form
The process is considered of forming an individual's pension fund in the accumulation form through a pension tax evenly paid off during the period of work. Expressions have been obtained for estimating the average amount of the pension fund and of pensions depending on the corresponding tax rates and interest income under different variants of wages dynamics. Corresponding variant calculations have been carried out. Identified is the dependence of pension on the duration of work and pension periods.

Kicha I.V., Tokarev V.V. (Moscow)  Transition from indicators to macroeconomic ones
Established is and analytical dependence of macro-economic indicators on industrial average specific technicoeconomic characteristics and on labor force for quasi-balanced economic dynamics modes. The formulae obtained can be used for theoretical and applied analysis of the state and prospects of the national economy without time-taking calculations of development paths on multi-industry models.

Volchkova N.A. (Moscow)  Integration of bank and industrial capital in export sectors
A mathematical model of integration of an industrial enterprise, operating in an export industry and a financial firm is suggested. It is shown that under oligopolistic competition in an international market, such integration may be mutually beneficial for them. The cause of it consists in non zero oligopolistic profit made in an international market at the expence of export. It is shown that under certain conditions imposed on the group ownership structure, the interest rate for loans given to the enterprise by the financial firm will be lower than the world level.

Dementyev N.P. (Novosibirsk)  On income, expenditure and savings indicators
Investigations [1,2] are continued on formation, transformation and use of inflation tax in a money and credit system, encompassing finances of government, population and enterprises, as well as the banking system of Russia. The main attention is paid to population finances.

Anikonov D.S., Tsitsiashvili G.Sh. (Vladivostok)  Issues of improving the procedure of mutual debts set-off
Considered is a problem of mutual debts cleaning-off of n persons without additional financing sources which is reduced to the well-known transportation problem. Such reduction makes it possible to estimate the influence of various promoting or impeding factors upon mutual debts set-off. Those factors include initial data errors, the existence of coalitions, middlemen, barter possibilities, and so on.

Lavlinsky S.M. (Novosibirsk)  Production sharing agreement and stable development of a territory rich in raw materials
For a resource-type region under transition period conditions, two basic nature-use models are compared: a license agreement and an individual tax scheme of "Production Sharing Agreement" type. It cleared up which of the models and under what conditions within a fixed time horizon ensures a stable development path for the territory.

Perevalov Yu.V., Ghimadi I.E., Dobrodei V.V. (Ekaterinburg)  The effect of industrial enterprise privatization: methodology of analysis and come results
Analyzed are theoretical and methodological problems of evaluating the influence on enterprises' performance. With the use of econometric models developed by the authors and of a data panel on 189 industrial enterprises of the Sverdlovskaya Region for 1992-98, some hypotheses about positive privatization effect are tested and confirmed.

Glushkov I.N., Latyshev N.V., Ostapenko S.N. (Tver)  Comparative analysis and directions to improve automated information systems ensuring the process of CTS development management
An analysis has been conducted of automated information systems (AISs) ensuring the process of analytical data processing and decision-making support in the process of CTS development management. Main directions of their improvement have been determined.

Mednitzky V.G., Mednitsky Yu.V. (Moscow)  On coordination of local and global optimal plans
A specialized method is constructed of a concave optimization problem, describing one of possible approaches to solving some problems of coordination (e.g. of optimal sectoral plans). Relations are investigated between prices of products and objectively conditioned estimations [1] of local and global problems as well as possibilities of the use of these estimations in economic mechanism functioning.

Beklaryan L.A., Sotsky S.V. (Moscow)  On one model of agreement of an investment contract
The work deals with investigation of procedures of working out regional conditions of investment attraction. As a participant, considered is the regional administration which establishes conditions in the form of subsidies or assignments to the investor. In the model, all main factors, influencing agreement of investment contract (opportunity cost of capital, risk, total assignments, indirect income (costs) associated with investment in the given region) are taken into account.

Mustafin A.T., Kantarbayeva A.K. (Kazakhstan)  On distribution of firms by sizes
A mathematical model is formulated of firms population development in terms of kinetic equation of transfer for the function of enterprises distribution by sizes. The stationary distributions computed reveal a prevalent statistical weight of small companies. The property of spectra of firm sizes makes it possible to give a theoretical explanation to the well-known statistical fact that the overwhelming majority of jobs in an economy are created by small firms.

Zakharov V.V., Lezhnina E.A. (St.-Peterburg)  Stable agreements in the natural gas market in Europe
The article deals with the theory-of-games approach to regulation of the natural gas market in Europe. To work out principles of preparation of a collective agreement for prices and volumes of gas supply, a market model in the form of cooperative game is suggested. As the optimality principle, S-core is used. An original approach to choice of the core selector which ensures stability of the agreement if the core is not empty.

Kulaghin 0.A. (St.-Peterburg)  Method of local optimization for solving multi-criteria integer programming problems
An interactive method is suggested which realizes the idea of local optimization of an unknown utility function ("LPR"). It is assumed that the LPR preference relation satisfies a number of axioms. Under these conditions, at each iteration of the method, a vicinity of feasible points is formed and within its limits, the finite set of non-dominated solution made for LPR analysis is estimated. An example of solving the problem is given.

Kislitsyna 0.A. (Moscow)  Statistical methods of estimation of factors influencing the duration of search for a job
A method of estimating the duration of search for a job with taking into account non-completeness of observations based on modeling data of lifetime type. The method is adapted to information possibilities and computer facilities of employment services which will enable them to actively develop systems of measures, decreasing social tension associated with the loss of job and to efficiently use means allocated for these purposes.

Ovsienko Yu.V. (Moscow)  Institutional shifts in Russia and their economic and social consequences
In the article, the institutional changes that have taken place in Russia for the recent ten years are discussed. An attempt is made to ascertain those of them which, in the first place, have led to a social and economic failure. Necessary conditions of effectiveness of institutional transformations are formulated.

Volkonskii V.A., Koryaghina T.I. (Moscow)  The official and the shadow economy in reality and in statistics
A conceptual framework is suggested for investigation and statistical estimating of the shadow economy, which, for the last ten years, has become a factor commensurable with main processes that determine the future of Russian society. Special attention is paid to reflecting the shadow economy in the national accounts system. The growth of criminal business is considered in the context of classical and modem problems of political economic theory.

Movshovich S.M. (Moscow)  Public tax and inflation losses
Stationary equilibrium in a multi-period model of an economy, including a representative consumer, producer and the state that sets taxes and determines the inflation rate is considered. The influence of changes in tax rates and the inflation rate upon such economic indices, as investments and employment is analyzed. Excess burdens of public losses per extra ruble of state budget revenues from tax collections and money printing engendered by them are evaluated and compared with one another. It is shown that the direction of inflation rate influence depends on the consumer's type whereas a tax always reduces employment and investments. Under controllable inflation, close to zero, extra money issue losses are close to zero and less than positive losses caused by raising the profit tax rate. Hence, small inflation is an effective way to finance government expenditure. On the contrary, high inflation reduces real income of the state.

Astakhov A.S. (Moscow)  Has the methodology development resulted in more accurate economic evaluations?
Some regularities of development of the methodology of production efficiency evaluation are analyzed. Interactions of processes of development of conceptual bases, of basic model toolkit, evaluation criteria, process-by-process factorial models, and information base are investigated. A general steady tendency of lagging development of factorial "supporting" models and of information rebuilding and its inhibitory impact on rates of theoretical development introduction have been revealed. It is shown that the development of methodology and model facilities exerted a rather complicated influence upon the criterion: it began reflecting increasingly more indirect consequences of projects being implemented. At the same time, that did not make it more reliable.

Mikheeva N.N. (Khabarovsk)  Problems of using regional accounts in macro-economic analysis
An experience of applying the modem concept of macro-economic analysis - the national accounts system in investigating regional development is shown. Discussed are problems of building a system of regional accounts on the basis of the NAS-1993 methodology. The set of current accounts is represented in the matrix form, convenient for formal analysis of the system of regional macro-economic indicators. Examples are given of using a system of regional accounts when building matrices of social accounts.

Kukushkin N.S. (Moscow)  The Nash equilibrium in games with additive aggregation
The article deals with strategic games where all the strategies are scalar and each player's gain depend on his choice and on the sum of the partners' choice. A property of the payoff function is formulated and two theorems of the Nash equilibrium existence in quasi-symmetrical games with this property: for continuous and for discrete sets of strategies. An interpretation is given for two well-known economic models those of Coumot oligopolistic competition and of ensuring social welfare with voluntary contributions.

Beklaryan L.A., Sotskii S.V. (Moscow)  Optimization of the level of capital invested in the problem in investment contract agreement
A problem is investigated of optimal control with phase constraints to which the problem of investment contract agreement between an investor and a region is reduced. The existence and uniqueness of optimal control are proved. The behavior of the optimal trajectory (optimal level of capital invested) as the solution to some implicit equation is analyzed. An algorithm is described of building the optimal control is described. The behavior of the utility function and additional utility for an investor under the optimal level of capital invested and the behavior of aggregate allocations depending on the region's characteristics are considered. On the basis of properties of the regions' and investors' characteristics, a breakup of the regions and investors into groups is conducted in accordance with the level of their mutual attractiveness.

Zulkarnayev I.U. (Ufa)  Mathematical modeling of vertical distribution of government rights in a state and Coase's theorem
An approach to economic and mathematical modeling of distribution of state government functions "along the vertical" is proposed as exemplified by two- and three-level modeling of two state-legal theories of state origin: the forced origin theory and the social-contract theory. Cause's theorem as applied to the functions of state government which are regarded as objects of exchange between various state bodies "along the vertical" is formulated and proved.

Beer K., Golstein E.G., Sokolov N.A. (Khemnitz, Moscow)  On the use of the levels method for minimization of convex functions with not all their values being finite
For a class of functions f, convex on a convex polyhedron G and Lipschitzean on the set G₁ = {х G : f (x) < , a method of minimization is proposed which coincides with the levels method in the case of G₁ = G. Estimates of the degree of convergence of the method and of its one modification under the assumption that G₁ has a nonempty interior are established. Results are presented of numerical testing the corresponding algorithms. It is noted that direct decomposition of linear programming problems is reduced to minimization of functions of the above-mentioned class and, as a rule, G₁ , is a proper subset of G.

Zaslavskii A.A., Lebedev S.S. (Moscow)  A nodal vectors method for integer programming
A new method of mixed integer linear programming is described. An enumeration procedure generates variants - vectors of fixed integer variables. The linear programming (LP) problem, corresponding to some variant, determines the so-called nodal vector - the optimal solution to the dual LP problem. The nodal vectors are used to construct bounds for other generated variants. As a result, the method rejects most of the variants without solving the corresponding LP problems.