Amosov A.I. (Moscow)
On transformation of the Russian economy (from the institutional approach positions)
Discussed are problems of transformation of forms of state governance and economy management? including distribution and property institutions? reproduction types? centralized planning? mechanisms of price formation for goods and production factor.
Volkonskiy V.A. (Moscow)
An institutional approach to problem of the crisis of the Russian economy
The article deals with analysis of the crisis situation in the Russian economy resulting from the radical reforms. The roles of macro- and microeconomic factors are compared: those of the property relations and control transformation on the one hand, and of the price and financial disparities - on the other. In the second section, discussed are theoretical issues about the role of the state and large corporations in economic systems developing on different civilization bases.
Voronovitskiy M.M. (Moscow)
Vertical integration of a supplier and a consumer in commodity and capital markets under cross-ownership
The mechanism of vertical integration effected simultaneously in a commodity market and in a capital market due to cross-ownership of property of enterprises that are links of one and the same technological chain is researched. The case is considered when a supplier, having some free capital, gives credit to a consumer at an interest rate, lower than the market one, for investment with the purpose to reduce his cost. It is shown that with certain values of the cross-ownership, there exists a stable vertical integration.
Varshavskiy L.E. (Moscow)
Forecasting dynamics of the human component of the Russian scientific potential
Considered is a model of long-term forecasting of dynamics of the research workers number, covering six age groups. Described in detail is the block of research workers supply, including economic and statistical relations connecting retirement of research workers and the ratio of the average wage rate in the science sector to that in the national economy on the whole, as well as the expectations about the level of R&D financing. Great attention is paid to issues of estimating parameters of those relations through the use of both the existing statistical data on science and scientific activities and indirect methods of determining indicators not presented in statistical reporting. Presented are variants of long-term forecasts of dynamics of the research workers number which have been obtained on the basis of the model developed. Proposals are set forth on securing continuity in the Russian science.
Gouriev S.M., Pospelov I.G., Petrov A.A., Shananin A.A. (Moscow)
On the role of nonpayments in enterprises integration
The articles deals with a model of behavior of an enterprice with the possibility of sale and purchase of production through two channels: a traditional one which is stable but characterized with nonpayments and commercial, with payment in full but unstable. The model describes qualitatively different enterprise functioning models depending on external parameters. It is shown that in such a model, there arise incentives for enterprises to integrate in financial and industrial groups. The role of fixed costs as one of nonpayment origins in the economy is considered.
Terekhov A.I. (Moscow)
Mathematical modeling of competition in the sphere of R&D (a survey)
Presented are a survey of problems, methods and tools of economic and mathematical modeling, and an analysis of the competition in the sphere of R&D.
Golstein E.G. (Moscow)
A dual decomposition method for solving the general fractional linear programming problem
A decomposition dual-type method for solving the general fractional linear programming problem with constraints partitioned into two horizontal blocks is described. The method's convergence rate is given.
Sedova S.V. (Moscow)
A model of investment projects optimization and an algorithm of its numerical analysis
A model of investment project optimization is described. A new algorithm is developed for its numerical analysis based on the ordering indexation technique. Prsented are results of experimantal calculations which demonstrate advantages of the new algorithm over the branches and bounds thechnique.
Polterovich V.M. (Moscow)
Institutional traps and economic reforms
The theory of institutional traps, i.e. ineffective but stable institutions or behavior norms, is developedin connection with economic reforms Mechanisms are described that cause a system to get into a trap and ways of going out of it are analyzed. Concepts of transformation costs and trasitional rents are introduced. As examples of institutional traps, considered are such institutions, as barter, non-payments, tax evasion, and corruption. A game-theoretic model of the barter trap is given.
M.L. Shakkum (Moscow)
The use of iconic models for socioeconomic research
Considered is a fundamentally new class of economic and mathematical models based on the iconic way of reflecting economic information ordered with the help of a map. The use of iconic models permits to obtain new information not taken into account by official statistics and, due to it, to essentially increase the reliability of statistical data. These methods made it possible to carry out an evaluation of natural resources, financial position, real economic potential of RF regions with identifying the "shadow" component and to conduct a complex analysis of socioeconomic development of the country on the basis of using the cartographic representation of statistical research data.
Zavelsky M.G. (Moscow)
Rehablitation of the national economy and social protection of the population of Russia
It is discussed how to restore the workability of the economy of Russia in order to ease its population's lot. Suggested are effective ways to create a financial basis and regulators of state assistance to either under which the theoretically expected return from their application in specific conditions of this country is achievable. Considered are necessary changes in the status, development order, methods of implementing economic decisions made by the state machinery and remuneration of it. Their consequences for market structures, production and social spheres, economic growth, and the society's well-being are analyzed.
Schaffer M.E. (Great Britain)
Do firms in transition economies have soft budgen constraints? A reconsideretion of concepts and evidence
The paper first examines various definitions of Kornai's soft budget constraint (SBC) and the difficulties involved in interpreting data on losses, subsidies, and financing and then considers selctive evidence from transition economies. Stocks of overdue credit are no larger than in Western economies and firms in transition ecomomies (TEs) typically impose hard budget constraints on each other. Banks have not been a systematic source of SBCs as often as it sometimes argued on the basis of data on classified loans. Tax arrears have emerged as a major sousce, and in the rapidly reforming TEs the major source of SBCs.
Kovalishin E.A., Pomansky A.B. (Moscow)
Real potions: the optimal moment for investing
In the present article, the option approach to analysis of investment efficiency under uncertainty is examined. A brief description of the main features of the real options theory is given. Ingersoll-Ross' option model is analyzed. A technique of determining the optimal time of investing has been developed and practically realized. A number of conclusions have been made about the practical application of stochastic processes in analyzing investment projects.
Albegov M.M., Khorkov A.V. (Moscow)
A forecast of marginal prices for fuel in Russia
A forecast of marginal prices for natural gas, black mineral oil, and coal in Russia for the period up to 2015 is given on the basis of the properties of dual variables of the optimal fuel and power balance and the laws of market economy. The determinants in the calculation system include the expected crude oil price in the center of Europe, tariffs and costs of transportation of various fuel kinds, costs of burmimg them at power stations.
Zalessky A.B. (Moscow)
Nominal and effective magnitudes of income tax and taxable income
Some issues of rationalizing the current system of individuals' income taxation in Russia and related problems are discussed. Identified are mechanisms of the influence of fundamental shortcomings of this system on the appearance, development, and self-reproduction of inflationary processes in today's economy of the country.
Voronovitsky M.M., Scherbakov A.V. (Moscow)
The enterprise's behavior under oligopolistic competition in money and barter marets simultaneously
The paper deals with an oligopoly model consisting of enterprises operating simultaneously in money and barter markets. The markets differ in the nature of demand and in the scale of transaction costs. The competition is described by means of Cournot's model. Investigated are the interdependence of behavior of enterprises operating in the two markets simultaneouly, price relation, and dependence of sales volumes on enterprises current capital.
Yegorova N.E. (Moscow)
Modeling the activity of a small enterprise fumctioning in economic simbiosis with a large industrial unit
The paper deals with a system of simulation models reflecting the process of interaction of a small and a large enterprise of the economic-simbiosis type being formed under the current conditions of the transitional period. Presented are results of scenario calculations carried out on the basis of specific information and permitting to determine conditions of switching the small enterprise to alternatives.
Andreyev G.I., Vitchinka V.V., Ostapenko S.N (Moscow)
Features of building a methodological basis of managing development of special-purpose complicated under present conditions
Determined are principles of building a complex methodological basis of management realizing closed cycles of working out managerial decisions and fundamental interrelation between long-term and shortterm planning. These principles are based on systematization of knowledge about managing development of special-purpose complicated systems, features of their functioning under present conditions, directions of improving the management methodology.
Kleiner G.B., Piontkovsky D.I. (Moscow)
On characterization of Solow's production functions
A class of production functions is considered which is one of the closest generalization of multi-factor functions with a constant and the same elasticity of factors substitution - Solow's functions. A full axiomatic description of such functions is given in terms of relations berween differential characteristics of the production function. The class of Solow's functions is described first with the help of characteristics determining changes in marginal productivity of factors with their variation. Then a characterization of Solow's multi-factor functions is suggested with the use of factor elasticities of marginal substitution rate for each pair of factor elasticities of marginal substitution rate for each pair of factors and of differential description of quasi-homogeneous functions. At the same time, new variants of characterization of homogeneous functions with a constant and the same elasticity of substitution for all factor pairs are suggested. The theorem about the form of the homogeneous two-factor production function permitting linearization by any autonomous scaling proved before by the first of the authors is generalized for the multi-factor case. It is shown that every quasi-homogeneous function linearizable by any such scaling is a Solow one.
Bagrinovsky K.A., Trenyov N.N. (Moscow)
Modeling adaptions processes of economic systems
The article deals with investigating the capability of economic units, possessing the internal optimization property to choose independently without any influence of external management, stable rational strategies of behavior under conditions of changes in resource provision and consumption materials variation.
Faltzman V.K. (Moscow)
On methods of measuring economic growth
The article deals with methods and models of economic growth measurement which have been verified in practice. Therefore, already now, they can be applied in macro-economic research.
Grebennikov V.G., Suvorov A.V., Shebarova E.A. (Moscow)
Measurements of intermediate production flows and economic efficiency among institutional sectors of the Russian economy
The article presents results of the second stage of reserching inter-industry relations of the Russian economy in the context of ownership forms which began in 1997. On the basis of Goskomstat data for 1995, the input coefficients of the inter-industry balance were calculated differentiated by ownership forms. It allowed to specify the propertions between ownership forms at the stage of inter-industry exchange: to calculate indicators of the use of intermediate production of each industry by ownership forms, evaluate the influence of factors determining specific volumes of consumption of intermediate production of esch institutional sector. Identified are industry characteristic features of forming the balance of redistribution of factor costs among ownership forms and the contribution of separate ownership forms in the aggregate volume of factor costs redistribution in each industry.
Voronovitsky M.M. (Moscow)
Reciprocal investment and vertical integration in commodity markets: the situation of cross ownership
Considered is an important for the Russian economy case when a supplier gives a customer credit at an interest rate which is less than the ordinary rate for investment in lessening his costs. Taken into account are such features of the Russian transition economy, as high cost of borrowing and unreliability of contract relations. The role of the cross ownership in the model is to stimulate integration in the commodity market and to guarantee the fulfullment of a contract. It is shown that under specific values of cross ownership, there exists astable vertical integration. The process of choosing the volume of credit and the interest rate by a creditor enterprise whose owners may have contradictory interests in investigated.
Pervozvansky A.A. (St.-Peterburg)
Optimal securities portfolio in a non-stationary disequilibrium market
The classic formulation of the problem of optimal securities portfolio is modified to take into account such features of the Russian market, as nonstationarity and inadequacy of the assumption about the impossibility of arbitrage. Some formal schemes of forecasting are described and it is shown that the conditional utility function depends on forecast errors.
Gourman V.I., Koulbaka N.E., Ryumina E.V. (Pereyaslavl-Zalessky, Moscow)
An experience of socioeconomic modeling of region development
The article contains results of a research in the field of modeling sustainable development of a region. A socioecological and economic model of region development is proposed for which a hierarchical set of indicators describing the nature and social subsystems is determined. Also proposed is a methodology of obtaining the relevant information which has been used for constructing scenarios of development of the Pereyaslavl-Zalessky District. The scenarios were compared by integral evaluations and their capability to resolve the region problems. As a result of it, a scenario of sustainable development of the region has been obtaoned which was developed on the basis of the most successful scenarios.
Andreyev G.I., Vitchinka V.V., Latyshev N.V., Ostapenko S.N. (Tver)
Managing the development of special-purpose complicated systems on the basis of the program management concept
An analysis is conducted of specific features of the methodological basis of system of managing the development of special-purpose complicated systems. General theses are formulated on the application of the program management concept on the basis of analysis of technical and economic indicators reflecting the fulfillment of short-term plans and taring into account functional interrelations in the long-term planning system to adapt in to the modern conditions.
Andreyev G.I., Bourenok V.M., Latyshev N.V., Moushkov A.Yu (Tver)
The multicriteria problem of choice of a development project of a special-purpose complicated system
A mathematical formulation is proposed of one of variants of solving the problem of chossing a development project of a special-purpose complicated system under the modern economic conditions by means of a modified numerical method of constructing rational solutions based on construction of LP-sequences.
Bagrinovsky K.A., Goroshko I.V. (Moscow)
Modeling of processes of raising efficiency of social systems-organizations
With the use of home affairs bodies as an example, the problem of evaluating the economic efficiency of social systems-organizations is considered. The existence of contradictions between the interests of systems and the society as a whole is discussed. Proposed are models for studying the possibilities of transition of systems-organizations to resource-saving lines of activities.
Kovalenko A.G. (Samara)
On mathematical modeling of a dispersed market
A one-product market is considered consisting of a finite number of points - local markets which are described with demand and supply curves. The points are connected with one another by trade-and transportation communications characterized with transportation curves. It is shown that the problem of finding values of streams through trade-and-transportation communications, prices and streams at equilibrium state points is reduced to the stream distribution problem in a hydraulic network with non-fixed collection. Algorithms of solving such problem are widely known. The inverse problem is formulated where from known streams through trade-and-transportation communications, known prices and streams at equilibrium state points, the parameters of transportation curves, and demand and supply curves are determined. This problem is reduced to a superposition of two problems of stream distribution of product and Lagrande's streams. Algorithms for solving this problem are proposed.
Sedova S.V., Lebedev S.S. (Moscow)
Solution of one allocation problem with the use of node vectors of resolving multipliers
In partialy integer programming, vectors of resolving multipliers, corresponding to a small number of integer variants, determinate estimates allowing to cut off the majority of generated integer variants without solving linear programming problems. A method of such type is applies to solve one allocation problem.
Perlamutrov V.L., Troparevskaya L.E. (Moscow)
Long-term conception of the Russian monetary policy
and enterprises' self-financing
The article deals with an enterprise's finance and money turnover as a separate mechanism of financial system. Self-financing appears to be a characteristic of the equilibrium state at this level. Money turn- over and an enterprise's finance are considered as a basis of monetary and financial system of the coun- try on the whole.
Klebaner V.S. (Moscow)
An estimate of expenditure on science dynamics
Considered are the possibilities of using the indices of the "Science and scientific service industry. applied in the Russian national accounts system as indicators for evaluating changes of the scale of financing the industry and its place in the national economy. An analysis is given of these indicators" dynamics in the period of economic crisis.
Ivanov Yu.N., Simunek V., Sotnikova R.A. (Moscow, New York)
Optimal credit policy of an enterprise and a bank
The article deals with mathematical models of financial interaction between enterprises and that of enterprises with a bank. A concept of marginal set of gains is introduced and optimization problems of crediting are formulated. Optimal rules of financial exchange are determined and formulae for interacting subjects; gains are given. A relation is set between interest rates for the case of interaction of an enterprise with other enterprises and that of an enterprise with a bank. The optimal interest rate for a monopolist bank is estimated. In conclusion, practical rules of financial interactions are given.
Vereskov A.I., Presnyakov V.E. (Moscow)
Towards determining prices at a unitary enterprise
It is suggested to consider internal prices for production and services which subdivisions of a unitary enterprise exchange between themselves as operating parameters set by the management and not connected immediately with production costs or market prices. These parameters are designated to ensure subdivisions to choose such plans for work that in the aggregate form the optimal plan of the entire enterprise calculated in advance within the framework of a certain block model of production planning.
Andreyev G.I., Vitchinka V.V., Vitchinka D.V., Ostapenko S.N. (Tver)
Formalizing functional development processes of management of complicated special-purpose system development
An analysis is conducted of methodological approaches to modeling processes of management of special-purpose complicated systems (SPCSs). A formal description of a sistem of mamaging SPCSs' development from the point of view of the most important characteristics of the subject scope: objects, problems, processes, roles, and actions.
Kozlov G.A. (St.-Peterburg)
Marriage marken models in demographic modeling
As shown in the article, when modeling the marriage process with the use of demographic simulation models (micromodels), special algorithms are necessary for determining the number of marriages at a modeling step. These algorithms are called marriage market models. An approach is proposed to construct them on the basis of considering the marriage market as a set of potential marriages - like a probability space. Two types of models are studied: optimization and estimation ones. The first is rejected because of the insolvability of the problem of determining the model parameters from statistical data (the reciprocal problem). For estimation models, the existence of their infinite sequence and the reciprocal problem solvability are shown. Considered are three estimation models. An example of solving a reciprocal problem is given. Different models are compared.
Bulavsky V.A. (Moscow)
Model of oligopoly with production factor markets
Considered is a model of oligopoly where participants, for producing a uniform product, use various production factors acquired in markets, common for all the participants. It results in that, unlike traditional models, cost of each participant depend not only on his own output but also on outputs of other participants. It is found that in this model, for the equilibrium, to determine, important are not real cost dependence on outputs, but some assumed cost functions or, more precisely, their derivatives. The form of real and assumed cost functions is studied, as well as conditions of existence of the equilibrium.