Lvov D.S., Mednitsky V.G., Mednitsky Ju.V.,
Ovsienko Ju.V. (Moscow) Economic evaluation
of large-scale projects
The problems of economic evaluation of large-scale projects in contemporary Russian conditions are discussed in this paper. We investigate the corresponding problems that can be solved using the methods of mathematical economics and a dialog system for project evaluation. The optimization models used in this system is also described.
Pugachev V.F., Pitelin A.K. (Moscow) Analysis
of anti-inflationary economic policy variants
The influence of a state economic policy on some selected indicators of inflationary process is investigated on the base of the conception developed by the authors before. Many variants of model calculations give an opportunity to reveal efficiency of varied methods of influence on economics, to formulate some suggestions upon the struggle against inflation.
Kashin V.N. (Moscow) On
a tendency of post-industrial economy
We investigate the contemporal economic state of developed countries and in this connection the role of scientific-technical progress, intellectual labour in output of new products, the role of classic theory of labour value and the problems of economic theory.
Varshavsky A.E., Grubman S.A., Zhelezniakova
L.G. (Moscow) Economic reforms and changes
in branches technological level
The quantitative estimates of technological level of 110 processes and products in main branches of Russian economy are given as the basis of proposed methodological principles. The growth of backwardness relatively to the trends of 1980-s in revealed as well as the main factors that stimulated these negative processes are determined.
Polterovich V.M. (Moscow) Transformational
recession in Russia
Causes of the transformational recession in Russia are analyzed. It is argued that particulary important are two of them: "row material integration" into world markets and premature attempts of the government to stop inflation. A program of inflation rate stabilization is proposed as an instrument to overcome the recession.
Yakovlev A.A. (Moscow) Currency
futures market in Russia: tendences and prospects of development
This paper gives a description of US dollars futures market at Moscow Commodity Exchange and brief characteristics of its institutional development in 1992–1995. Qualitative changes in the structure and behaviour of the participants of the futures market and also development of interconnections of this market with other financial markets are analized. Basic factors limiting development of the futures market in Russia under contemporary conditions are determined in this article.
Motkin G.A. (Moscow) Ecological
risks insurance in free market conditions
Methodology of ecological risks insurance development and its role and importance in ecological sofety are considered. The idea of ecological security should be garanteed if the necessity and possibility of engaging commercial structures capital could be proved.
Rotar V.I., Sholomitsky A.G. (Moscow) On
evaluation of risk in insurance activity
The paper containts a short introduction into the modern theory of risk evaluation. We are concerned with general principles and some widespread criteria, as well as with an application of those to an analysis of the optimal behaviour of an insurance company.
Alexandrov I.A., Sokolovsky D.B. (Donezk) Classification
of industrial systems on ecological risk rate
Experience of progress and present state of the problem in Ukraine are examined. Methods of insurance fees rates differentialisation, collecting source information and estimating its reliability and tariffs calculation are proposed.
Gurman V.I., Kulbaka N.E., Rumina E.V. (Moscow,
Pereslavl–Zalesski) Environmental problems
in System of National Accounts
We consider the system of national accounts, its history and prospectives. Possibilities of its extention by putting of satellite accounts and experience of using of such accounts for strategic planning are analyzed. As the base for modification of system of national accounts it is suggested to use conceptual model reflecting various aspects of sustainable development.
Smolyak S.A. (Moscow) Comparison
of the "likelyhooded" alternatives
The problem considered is the comparison of variants of the projects which technical-economic indexes are based on the statistical information, however, characterized not by the distributional estimators but directly by the liklyhood functions. We found the structure of comparison criteria satisfied the axioms having the simple economic meaning.
Gavriletz Ju.N. (Moscow) Interests
measurements and price regulation of economics with variable structure
of population (model analysis)
The article deals with small-sized models of economic system where labour activities and social groups sizes are variables. The optimal properties of equilibrium are investigated for criterias WI = \Sum NkUk, WII = min Uk. The results of computer modelling of stable and unstable equilibriums are discussing.
Albegov M.M., Osipova M.I., Komogorov V.V.
(Moscow) Aproach method for decision of
economic problems described by block structure linear models
Function of response is used for approach decision economic problems, linear and linear-integer programming of block structure.
Polishchuk L.I. (USA) Rent
seeking economic efficiency: the case of spontaneous privatization
The paper deals with the process of "spontaneous privatization", when in the absence of a convincial capital market control over capital can be secured by rent seeking type efforts. Under the assumption of universality of entrepreunal talant, spontaneous privatization entails not only cost rent seeking, but also benefits of self-selection of able entrepreneurs.
An equilibrium model is introduced with the capital market replaced by rent seeking. It is demonstrated that although rent seeking levies its tall, the equilibrium stil features some desirable efficiency properties. The problems of entry control into rent seeking are discussed, including taxation as a means to prevent socially undesirable overrollment into entrepreneurship. The paper concludes by considering spontaneous privatization as a trigger for conventional capital market, which gradually replaces rent seeking.
Dementiev V.E. (Moscow) Investment
and innovative avantages of financial-industrial groups
This paper establishs that credits become cheaper for members of financial-industrial groups since banks take part in such groups. It is favorable both to investment and innovative processes. The paper shows how financial-industrial groups held to bring closer to each other strategic interests of consumer and deliverer.
Egorova E.N., Petrov Ju.A. (Moscow) Evaluation
of effective tax rate of value added in Russia and foreign countries
A term "effective tax rate" (ETR) of value added is introduced for evaluation of total tax burden. The static model for ETR computation and results of the comparative analysis of ETR in Russia and foreign countries on the base of real data are described.
Pervakova E.E., Staroverov O.V. (Moscow) On
parameters estimation of population mobility
This paper deals with the comparison of population mobility estimators on the base of real data.
Tarasova N.A., Blyumina M.S. (Moscow) Involuntary
employment structure and its influence on transition processes
This paper deals with an involuntary employment, which is one of the essential characteristics of transition period. To estimate the components of its structure and earning level is the first investigated actual problem. Its solution will result in more exact forecasts of occupatinal level, rate of labourforce redundancy release and the unemployment rate. The second problem – to investigate connection between investing process and the involuntary employment.
Gusev A.A., Guseva I.G. (Moscow) On
economic mechanism of sustainable development
Premises of the necessity of elaboration of economic mechanism sustainable development are analysed. System of economic mechanism elements is substantiated. It comprises the improvement of macro- and micro-economic indicators, creation of complex of economic impacts on production ecologization, stimulation of market for environmental services production and technologies, accounting of admissable environmental risk factors, etc. Interrelations between elements in system and measures for adequate administrative support are shown.
Kokovin S.G. (Novosibirsk) A
model of mixed multi-market economy; "soft" rationing and pq-equilibrium
An economy is considered, consisting of several markets with different transaction costs and different market-clearing mechanisms. Among them there are markets combining price and quantity regulation, in a special way named "soft" rationing. It means that rations (quotas) can be violated for expense of some penalties or costs. An equilibrium model of such market system is suggested and equilibria existence proved.
Venedov D.V., Guriev S.M., Pospelov I.G. (Moscow) On
some properties of logarithmic utility function
The problem on rational consumer behavior under uncertainty of prices and purchase moments is considered. The way the saved part depends on the consumer wealth is investigated. The logarithmic utility function is considered separately. In this case the saved part happens to be independent of prices, and an asympthotical formula is obtained for it at larged discount rates.
Mednitsky V.G. (Moscow) Economic
efficiency analysis by optimizational models
Using general static and dynamic models the author deduces necessary conditions for obtain economic efficiency of decisions. In the basis of this paper are Kantorovich' evaluations described in his works "Mathematical methods of production organization" (1939) and "Economic determination of the best use of resources" (1960).
Voloshinov V.V., Levitin E.S. (Moscow) Extreme
constraints in models on investment project with Financial mechanism ensuring
all cash outflows
The paper presents a conception of optimization models with not only initial but intermediate cash outflows also. Special conditions to ensure realizations of the projects are included into the model, Building-in the project special financial mechanism ensuring all intermediate outflow causes appearence of extreme constraints in the optimizational model. An example of financial leasing project supplied with ensuring mechanism as government bonds portfolio is considered.
Bulavsky V.A. (Moscow) An
imaginary experiment with generalized Cournot model
A problem of choosing some natural market model, intermediate between the absolute competition and the classic oligopoly, is considered. The market agents use an appropriate feedback scheme to observe the results of their actions. Under the latter condition the intermediate model is demonstrated to be determined endogenously by the economics parameters.
Zorcaltsev V.I. (Irkytsk) Axiomathic
analysis of calculation methods of index-factors weight in their product
In this paper the constraints to a method of some index-factors weight calculation are formulated. On the base of those index-factors analysis the more conviniant method is exposed.
Lvov D.S., Moiseev N.N., Grebennikov V.G. (Moscow) Conception
of social-economic development of Russia
This article is a fragment from the "Manifest of Arbat Club" prepared by academicians D. Lvov, N. Moiseev and doctor V. Grebennikov in 1995, october. In that paper the main scientists from TSEMI and other institutes of RAN – V. Pugachev, Ju. Ovsienko, Ju. Sukhotin, V. Dementiev, V. Presnyakov, V. Zotov, Ju. Petrov, A. Nekipelov, K. Gofman were participated.
Shastitko A.E. (Moscow) The
state and economic growth
The article that is suggested is an attempt of interpretation of economic development problem within the framework of neoinstitutional approach to the analysis of state significance in economic history. Its background is duality of institutions according to which coordinating function of institution is a side product of distributive conflict overcoming.
Bernstam M.S., Guriev S.M., Olenev N.N., Petrov
A.A., Pospelov I.G. (Moscow) A mechanism
of economic growth initiation through restoration of savings
The article describes the findings on the Russian economy after the reform of 1992 with the application of mathematical models. Part I shows that the state of the economy in 1992–1994 can be confidently described applying the new model of an inefficient inflationary equilibrium. This equilibrium emerges due to the lack of investment and insufficient household savings. To overcome this equilibrium, a restructuring of fundamental economic relations is necessary. Part II analyzes one possible strategy for this restructuring on the basis of stimulating productive investment. An engaging feature of this strategy is the creation of investment resources via the conversion of household savings depleted by the 1992 inflation into government debt and their gradual private investment. An analysis of a mathematical model of this process shows that the proposed mechanism can work, but its implementation needs additional policy measures for overcoming both technical inefficiency of the Russian economy and the underdevelopment of its financial institutions.
Albegov M.M., Bursa B.I., Simonov A.G. (Moscow) One
possible approach to the short-term forecast of national/regional development
for a country in transition
New approach to the short-term forecast national/regional development is described. The main request consist in minimization of differencies between technological coefficients of forecasted and observed matrixes. The approach is heavily dependent from assestments by experts of the future technological development. Calculations demonstrate the easyness of the method realization and practical usefullness of the achieved results.
Hilchevskaya R.I. (Moscow) Problems
of ecological economics through the conception of sustainable development
On the base of conception of sustainable development the main aspects of ecological economy and a role of Russian scientists are investigated.
Golichenko O.G. (Moscow) On
modelling of money growth influence of inflation and production level dynamics
The description of economic agents interaction on micro level is considered. It gives a possibility to install ties between key variables of upper and down levels for a rather general type. It is shown, that among the existing micro and macro analysis schemes there are only two cases yielding to theoretical analysis. The first corresponds to the neoclassical mechanism of desequilibrium regulation and the second presents the friction mechanism of nominal rigidities. The approach proposed allows to remove the polarity of the existing models at the expense of taking into account producers inflation expectations and the introduction of adaptation mechanisms to the emerging desequilibrium.
Koblenz-Mishke Yu.A. (Moscow) The
thresshold models of aggregate demand dynamics
A theoretical essay on consumption dynamics models reflecting the influence of significant changes in the level and distribution of consumer incomes. After considering the David threshold model the related models accounting for the income distribution of wealthy consumers and the softness of the income threshold were introduced and analyzed. Their applicability to the contemporary Russian economy was discussed.
Shorgin S.Ya. (Moscow) Asymptotic
evaluation of optimal insurance tariffs on the base of individual claim
The subject of the paper is the investigation of the insurer' surplus distribution for a set of insurance contracts at the time of all contract' completion. Random claims are identically distributed with known three moments. It is assumed that the insurance premiums are random variable. There are obtained the asymptotic estimations for the surplus distribution and for the optimal rate with garanteed the given probability of surplus non negativity.
Khutoretsky A.B. (Novosibirsk) Model
of short-term equilibrium at house market analysis and applications
The formulation of the short-term equilibriums model at house market simplifies the H. Wiesmeth' model and using it one can find equilibriums by solving a linear programming problem and, more, it may be applicated to various cases, for example to regulation of influences on house market.
Smolyak S.A. (Moscow) On
the estimation of k-thikness convex sets
k-thickness of convex set G is defined as the supremum of sum of (Haussdorff's) distances between sequential pairs of k+1 imbedded convex subsets of G. For 2-dimensional sets G it is found the upper and lower bounds of this index increasing as k1/3.
Tambovtsev V.L. (Moscow) On
the typology of the contracts
The contracts are interpreted in the paper as the projects (normative models) of combined coordinated actions that intend to do two or more subjects. Thus a contract consists two logical parts: description of the future desired results (including it distribution between parties of contract) and description of the mechanism of the production of the results (including the distribution of the actions between the parties). The different combinations of the versions of the parts content determine the variety of the contract types.
Ovsienko Ju.V. (Moscow) Conditions
for socioeconomic reform
The author analyses the situation when some conditions are necessary for economic development. These conditions are also necessary that any program of socioeconomic reform be realized.
Zavelsky M.G. (Moscow) The
market for spillovers rights
Social division of labor generate to spillover benefits or costs. Difference regarding rights to these effects are highly dangerous for society especially if conditions to manage in regions of country differ very much and if workers are mobile very small. The original market mechanism of economic effective state regulation of these differences is proposed in this article.
Bagrinovsky K.A., Khrustalev E.Ju. (Moscow) Methodological
principles of the information system construction for planning and realization
of the large social economic projects and programs
The peculiarities of the construction of the large socioeconomic projects and programs at present situation are discussed in this paper. Methods for decision making and realizing by economic mechanism of the competition type and new information technologies are proposed.
Braginsky O.B., Krichevsky I.E., Kunitsina N.N.
(Moscow) Modelling methods applying on
the base of enterprises integration into an industrial group
An experience of applying of modeling methods on the base of efficiency of some enterprises integration into an industrial group, its production program optimization and long-term strategy choice are revealed in the article.
Bakhtadze N.N., Lototsky V.A., Maximov E.M.,
Nikulina I.V., Yaralov A.A. (Moscow) Statistical
information systems using for marketing
The concept of statistical information system for analysis and forecasting of pricing strategy of large trade firm is given. The robust and adaptive predicting algorithms are developed which are effective for marketing, accounting the Russian market specific features.
McKinnon R., Pill H. (USA) Credible
liberalizations and international capital flows: the " over-borrowing"
When undertaking reform and stabilization programs, countries are prone to excessive foreign borrowing, which ultimately proves unsustainable. This phenomenon has been variously labeled the "over-borrowing syndrome" and the "Walters Critique". This paper outlines a model, consistent with rationality on the part of private agents; where such short run deviations from sustainable behavior are caused by financial market failure. Because banks fail as efficient information conduits between depositors and borrowers, excessively optimistic expectations about the success of reform are created amongst domestic residents, international investors and the policy authorities. Initially such optimism is borne out by improved economic performance and large inflows of foreign capital. It is only later that sustain ability conditions bind and the economy collapses into a recession, financial crisis and capital flight.
Previous work addressed whether to undertake structural reform in regimes of perfect mobility or immobility of international capital. This paper demonstrates that an interior solution – involving partial capital controls – is preferable to either polar extreme. Ex ante welfare is maximized by imposing a reserve requirement on capital inflows through the banking system and similar taxes on other inflows. Direct controls on domestic consumer credit and compulsory private saving programs are possible second-best policy options.
Hillman A.L. (Israel) West
economic theory and transition to market economy: the public choice perspective
Two theoretical approaches to the transition process study are discussed: one orthodoxal and another based on social choice theory. It is demonstrated that the latter one gives appropriate explanation for some observed though "undevisible" events.
Levita R.Ja. (Moscow) Social-psychology
component of institutional changes in economy
On the Russian statistical data the author analyses the disbalances between social-psychology and organizational and law (right) components of economic institutions under institutional government changes.
Smolyak S.A. (Moscow) On
the comparison of alternative with random outcomes
The structure of the comparison criteria of projects with random vector outcomes is discussed. Such criteria are considered as the functionals on the class of random alternatives. In order to prevent the economically wrong decisions due to use of these functionals, they must be continuous, monotone as well as mixture-invariant. Furthermore they have to provide the possibility of local comparison of projects in the complex economic systems. It is proved that given properties has only two-parameter criteria family of the Masse's criteria type. This type is based on Laplace transformation of probability distribution of alternative outcomes (within limit –- the criteria of weighted expectation of alternative outcomes). It is found out, for which parameter values these criteria stimulate the choice of more risky alternatives (i.e. alternatives with large scatter of outcomes vector). The peculiarities of the comparison of projects having time spreaded outcomes are investigated.
Rotar V.I., Shorgin S.Ya. (Moscow) On
reinsurance of risks and insurer's retention
The maximal insurer's retention is calculated with provision for the existing insurer's portfolio in the conditions of facultative quota reinsurance. The bounds for the non-ruin probability of the insurance portfolio including the new risk are regarded. The problems is solved using the model which based on the central limit theorem.