Akaev A.A. Effect of Hydrocarbon Energy Resources on the Dynamics of the World
Economic Development in the XXI Century. // Economics of contemporary Russia 2014. ¹2 (65) Ñ.34-45.
In this
paper we study the impact of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) on global growth.
Moreover, we consider only the fundamental factors – the cost of production,
depletion and substitution of fossil hydrocarbon energy resources. It was
obtained approximate analytical formulas describing the rental fee and the cost
of production and the degree of depletion in two stages: the first (1820–1950),
when production costs were negligible in comparison with the rent, and the
second – after 2000, when on the contrary, the costs of energy production
prevail and converted into the category of limited exhaustible natural
resources (ENR). On the base of Dubovsky production function, considering the
influence of ENR, was obtained projections of the impact of hydrocarbon energy
resources on world economic development in the XXI century. Also was calculated
the dynamics of changes the value of hydrocarbon resources in GDP. It is shown
that the share of expenditure on the hydrocarbon energy in GDP due to
fundamental factors do not exceed the allowable 5% of GDP for the whole XXI
century.
Keywords: rent
fee for ENR, extraction costs of ENR, market price of ENR, share of costs for
energy consumption in GDP, Dubovsky production function considering the
influence of ENR, Hotelling’s rent equation, dynamics of the global energy
consumption.
