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Polterovich
V.M. About Strategies of Catching up Development for Russia
We argue
that a system of strategic (indicative) planning is necessary to
realize a
successful catching up strategy. The
main task of the system is creation of a regular mechanism of
interaction among
government, business, trade unions, and consumers to facilitate
strengthening
of mutual confidence and coordination of efforts directed to mass scale
restructuring of production sectors; these restructuring has to be
based on
mass imitation and adaptation of Western technologies. Contrary to
broadly
accepted opinion, indicative planning might facilitate improvement of
institutions as well as civil society formation.
The article
argues that the weak link of contemporary institutional systems in
various
countries is incomplete reflection of the interactions between human
beings and
nature. Seeing symbiosis between human beings and nature as the
ultimate goal
of stable development there has been made an attempt to outline the
features of
logically consistent, ecology-friendly system of institutions that help
to
achieve this goal. Social factors that speed this process up or slow it
down
were elicited.
The author
argues that the cross-discipline version of socioeconomics (as
presented by
SASE today) has limited cognitive and application opportunities. The
author
views the expansion of these opportunities as a way to form an economic
version
of socioeconomics. It studies bilateral ties between the economic and
social
aspects of the reproduction of economic systems of different levels and
types
and tries to give an economic estimation of these ties. The author
looks at the
potential of the given version of socioeconomics for the construction
of a more
effective social and economic policy (SEP) and the obstacles in using
economic
estimates as an instrument of SEP, connected with social specific
features of
Russia.
The
structural policy in the Post-Soviet Russia actually was absent.
Therefore the
degradation of technological structure of economy grew, that eventually
had led
to structural crisis. To overcome crisis it is possible if it have
carried out
modernization of economy on the advanced scientific and technical
basis. In
this paper the brief generalization of laws of long-term technical and
economic
development is given, the present condition of technological structure
of the
Russian economy is analyzed, and also problems of structural policy for
removal
of Russia from structural crisis to a trajectory of fast and steady
economic
growth is based.
The article
considers the present mechanisms for formation and redistribution of
the
population incomes and deformation of these mechanisms connected with
their
adjustment in favor of the rich that is the main impediment to solution
of the
problem of poverty and reduction of inequality. It shows that the
extent of
poverty cannot be radically reduced within a short time without
reduction of
the extent of inequality, and lack of a well-considered system of
leveling up
incomes and property status of different groups of the population
results and
will subsequently result in growth of the gap between the richest and
the
poorest strata of the population. There are given model estimates
demonstrating
the differences and presenting assessment of the changes needed for
bringing
the distributive mechanisms into the line of the «world» standards.
The paper
describes Russian symptoms of the Dutch disease and the ways to cure
them and
also considers the related issues of economic and social development.
The
financial reserves for these purposes are analyzed too.
The main
problems of the modern water-using in Russia are formulated. An
objective
necessity of a water market formation as an institute of income
relations
between the water fund owner (state) and an entity water-user is
certified. On
the base of analysis of formulated model of optimal control of
water-using, the
main conditions of the «tuning» of optimum trajectory of long-term
stable
water-using by the means of regulation of rent payment.
The article
is devoted to the examination problem how the changes in the scope,
personnel
numbers and company age affect on its managerial structure. The
analysis is
based on the famous L. Greiner's model (1972) where a company's growth
is
viewed as a consistent alternation of evolutionary and revolutionary
stages of
development. In this model the examination of a company's evolution is
finalized with the fifth stage while the next in turn crisis is
indicated by
the author with the question mark, only marking it but not identifying
it. The
article based on the generalizations over the tendencies of modern
companies'
development suggests and proves the expansion of this model onto the
next step.
The author describes the crisis that follows the latest one which is
claimed by
Greiner as the evolutionary stage and is called «crisis of hierarchy».
Meeting
the crisis the company is able to proceed to the next stage, the sixth
evolutionary stage of development which is marked as «the stage of
cooperation».
The study
describes agent based-model of Russian socio-economic system with
built-in
neural networks. The equilibrium state in the model occurs when
aggregate
demand equals aggregate supply in the markets for goods and service.
This
equilibrium is achieved by the means of iterative calculations with the
usage
of various equalization mechanisms. The specific feature of the model
is its
ability to track the signals passed between micro and macro levels of
economic
system. The study also provides the review of the major developments in
the
field of artificial intellect and the results of the experiments within
the
constructed model, concerning the consequences of decreasing certain
tax rates.
Russia and
China have similar heritages. They were and remain authoritarian
martial police
states, deviating substantially from the cultural, institutional, and
behavioral requirements of efficient democratic free enterprise. Both
modernized without westernizing(preserving their authoritarian martial
police
states), but with conspicuously different results. These disparities
are
catalogued, analyzed and attributed to cultural factors inclining
Beijing to
pursue a disciplined, value-adding development strategy that is nearly
the
antithesis of Moscow's reliance on natural resource extraction and
rent-seeking. China's relative authoritarian success, and its stellar
growth
performance vis-a-vis western democracies leaves open the question of
comparative systems merit. Could some culturally contexted
authoritarian
martial police states be superior to democratic free enterprise as some
scholars are beginning to suggest? Close scrutiny indicates that they
can't;
that authoritarian systems are crisis prone, dynamically inferior and
welfare
diminishing after the advantages of relative backwardness have been
exhausted
in the long run.